Confrontational politics: Will local elections help?

It seems that the gulf of difference between the two mindsets, one opposing the amendment of the constitution before local  level elections and another supporting the amendment before election, is getting wider. It would be in the interest of the country if the gulf is bridged sooner

Ultimately, Prime Minister P K Dahal is likely to announce the date for holding local Level elections shortly. It appears that he has succumbed to the pressure of the main opposition party the CPN-UML and is moving ahead as per his own tactics and also meeting the interests of the Nepali Congress in his forthcoming announcement.

It is difficult to predict the repercussions of the decision as to how the United Democratic Madhesi Front and other agitating parties will react. But it is certain that if the process of election is opposed vehemently and the government resorts to its repressive measures, it may result in further bloodshed leading to unpleasant consequences.

Contextually, Dahal was made to lead the coalition government with a view to dislodging K P Sharma Oli from prime ministership and register the amendment bill to redraw the boundaries of the provinces to meet the demands of the Madhes-centric parties.

These were the obligations to be fulfilled by PM Dahal. He successfully threw Oli out of power several months ago and became prime minister. The second task has been lingering since then. Though he tried to show that he was serious about amending the constitution to appease the Madhesi outfits, he faced serious obstacles.

After overcoming the hiccups lately, the amendment bill has been registered. But the story does not end here. He has now two options before him. First, to secure the acceptance of the constitution by all stakeholders, especially the Madhesis and Tharus and Janajatis, he has to get the constitution amended and hold elections afterward.

Interestingly, to amend the constitution is a hard nut to crack. He was quite aware of the fact his party and the coalition have no numerical strength in the legislature –parliament to play any decisive role in amending the constitution.

What he can do is just to pursue the matter with the UML which is constantly opposing it tooth and nail having the numerical strength at its command in the House by securing support from several fringe parties.

Second, he has to hold elections without amending the constitution suited to not only the UML but also to a section of leaders in both CPN-Maoist Centre and the Nepali Congress.

Strategically, after realizing his party’s limited numerical strength in the second Constituent Assembly, he decided to go along with the Nepali Congress and the UML in adopting the new constitution in September 2015 and had succeeded in getting some of his party’s agendas in state restructuring, like the inclusion of some provisions for determining special or autonomous regions in the constitution.

He also succeeded in becoming Prime Minster for the second time by deserting the CPN-UML and taking help from the single largest party in the legislature–parliament, the Nepal Congress, to support his line. He has proved his shrewdness once again that he can sail through in the worst time of his political career as well.

However, his last trial is not over. He is in power for more than six months. He showed his skill in dealing with not only its coalition partners but also its arch-rival Oli and his party by speaking one thing to please the Madhesi Morcha in the morning, another thing to please the UML in the afternoon and yet another thing to displease both in the evening.

He might have thought it as his flexibility and asset but ultimately it may prove to be his greatest weakness. To hold local level elections will open yet another war front with the Madhesi outfits, which are opposing the report of the Local Bodies Restructuring Commission on the ground of limiting the number of local units depriving the proportional representation of the people residing in the region.

It seems that the gulf of difference between the two mindsets, one opposing the amendment of the constitution before local level elections and another supporting the amendment before election, is getting wider.

It would be in the interest of the country if the gulf is bridged sooner. There is a dearth of leadership that can bring these two sides on the table to negotiate the settlement of the issues and make it binding on all. In spite of his shortcomings, the late GP Koirala’s absence is felt.

If we fail to get any able leader from our political class, it is getting late to seek help from some senior civil society leaders to initiate the move of consensus that is lacking these days.

If this confrontation continues further, the common people of Nepal will suffer enormously, which may tell upon the political system, ultimately its very draft.

The young educated generation is migrating to developed countries every day and unskilled people are rushing to Gulf counties in search of bread and butter struggling for their survival.

But the political class, which appears to be engaged in politics of confrontation, is complacent as their way life is getting royal every day.

They are never serious about the pitiable condition of the people, who suffered heavily due to the devastating earthquake and who are forced to live helplessly even in rainy days and biting cold in tents and temporary shelters.