KATHMANDU, JUNE 10

A consensus statement recently issued by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has predicted normal to below normal rainfall over most parts of South Asia, including Nepal, during the 2023 southwest monsoon season (June-September).

According to South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SAS- COF), geographically, above-normal rainfall is likely over northernmost parts and northwest of the region as well as parts of eastern and southern regions of South Asia. However, below normal rainfall is likely over some areas northwest, central and north-eastern parts of the region. The seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or of climatological probabilities over the remaining areas of the region.

During the season, above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of South Asia except parts of the foothills of Himalaya. The seasonal maximum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most parts of the region except central and parts of the southern region of South Asia.

This regional climate outlook for the 2023 southwest monsoon season over South Asia has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of South Asia, including Nepal, with the support from international experts at the 25th session of the SAS- COF conducted online. The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.

According to SASCOF, the multi-year La Niña has ended around March 2023 and currently neutral conditions are prevailing over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that the El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season. However, there is uncertainty in its strength and the time of its onset.

It is recognised that the g l o b a l climate model predictions prior to and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to spring barrier in the seasonal predictability.

It is also recognised that other regional and global factors as well as the intra-seasonal features of the region can also affect the seasonal climate patterns over the region.

A version of this article appears in the print on June 11, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.