The group of British parliamentarians returned home disappointed on March 24 without getting an audience with the King during their six-day visit to Nepal. The team leader, Sir John Stanley, while finding the security situation in Nepal worse and the gap between the political parties and the government substantially wider than what they had anticipated, emphasised that if the impasse continued, the situation could get even worse, and there could be no solution without a dialogue. He suggested the government and parties should commence a dialogue to reach an agreement to restore parliamentary democracy, full human rights and peace in Nepal.

Similarly, a day earlier, British ambassador Keith George Bloomfield, speaking at the interaction organised by Ganeshman Singh Academy, had urged those who advocated elections as a solution to Nepal’s crises to initiate a meaningful dialogue within the country to make a credible consensus road map. He dejectedly stated that since the London Conference four years ago, the international community had constantly argued that the King and the parties should work together to agree to a strategy for handling the Maoist threat through negotiations and reintegration of the Maoists into the mainstream. But, instead of acting upon their advice, they had been told to mind their own business.

The Chinese State Councillor, Tang Jiaxuan, during his recent visit to Nepal, was fortunate enough to have audience with the King. Breaking the old Chinese tradition of not meeting any political leaders , he met the top leaders of two prominent parties and advised all constitutional forces to have a dialogue to bring peace and stability. Before Tang’s visit, the US president had urged the King to have a dialogue with the parties at a press conference in New Delhi and it was communicated immediately by Donald Camp, US principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, during his visit to Nepal.

It seems that coming days are very crucial, as the seven-party alliance has come out with its agenda for the forthcoming struggle against autocracy. The Maoists have withdrawn their 21-day blockade on the sixth day itself and their indefinite general strike from April 3 in support of the peaceful movement of the alliance. Against these moves, the general secretary of the CPN (UML), Madhav Kumar Nepal, who was under house arrest, has now been lodged in Kakani barracks. Some senior leaders of the Nepali Congress, and leaders of the civil society like Dr Devendra Raj Panday, Krishna Pahari, Dr Mathura Shrestha and Shyam Shrestha, have been transferred to different places from the Army Academy, Maharajgung. To analysts, this is a prelude to a hardline attitude of the government towards the political activists who are opposing autocracy, tooth and nail.

In the past few days, the Maoists have considerably stepped up their attacks on the armed forces. There is not a single day when armed conflict has not taken place. Are the Maoists fighting for their existence desperately or building pressure on the government? Should the recent desertions by their two central committee members from the party be considered a signal of dissatisfaction in their rank and file, which has to be reckoned with?

The King has shifted his permanent camp to Pokhara, as during the last six months the capital has been mostly without him. He comes to preside over the cabinet meetings, to accept credentials of new ambassadors, and to give audience to special dignitaries like Tang. The King may be feeling comfort near the lakeside where he can chalk out his plans under the shadow of the lofty peak of Machha Puchchre. He, instead of reaching out to the parties as advised by the US president or more recently by Tang, might be engaged in reaching out to the Maoists whose main domain is situated not far off from there.

Against these political activities, Home Minister Kamal Thapa has warned the parties against establishing relations with the Maoists. Apart from external pressure from the international community and the internal pressure exerted by the combined force of the alliance and the Maoists, the government has reacted desperately and may take any apolitical action unwittingly. It may go in for the extreme action of banning the parties, completing a political circle starting from the people’s movement of 1990. It would be repeating the history of 1960. But, it may really be the climax in the political drama enacted during the last several years from where the fall of the curtain of the present regime will begin. In the first stage, nationwide arrests may be made. Secondly, the government may be dismissed. Thirdly, military rule may be imposed. Fourth, as a result, mass upsurge may begin with the help of the Maoists and the nation may be engulfed in chaos and confusion, and lastly, with the overthrow of the government, a new form of government may come into existence for the good of the people at large.

Prof. Mishra is ex-election commissioner