Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrullah has said his intent in capturing two Israeli soldiers was to bargain for the release of Arab prisoners held by Israel. Many political analysts in Lebanon were stunned by the scale of the attack, though. It seems timed to coincide with Hamas operations in Gaza, where a third Israeli soldier is being held. There is an internal Lebanese dynamic at play here as well and Hizbullah may be trying a high-risk strategy of reasserting its position within Lebanon.

Hizbullah has been closely linked to Syria and especially Iran. Syria has said it did not order the mission. “The resistance in south Lebanon and among the Palestinian people decides solely what to do and why,” said Syrian vice-president, Farouq al-Shara. But it is unlikely such a major operation could have gone ahead without at least the knowledge of Hizbullah’s key allies in Tehran.

The Lebanese government is in a tight spot. On the one hand Hizbullah has two ministers in the cabinet and the government has spoken publicly of its support for the group. On the other hand, the wide respect that Hizbullah enjoyed across Lebanese society is beginning to fade.

A United Nations resolution in late 2004 ordered the Lebanese government to disarm all militias, a decision clearly directed at Hizbullah. Yet the group refuses to give up its weapons. In the short-term, the Beirut government won’t be able to rein in Hizbullah. Disarming the militia requires prolonged negotiations.

The signs so far are that the conflict will be limited to the clashes between Lebanon and Israel and between Israel and the Palestinians. The US government, in particular, will want to ensure that this crisis does not undermine its difficult position in Iraq.

“We have to remember we are in the middle of a very unstable situation in the Middle East,” said Diaa Rashwan of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. “The Americans don’t want to disrupt the situation in Iraq and I think the Israelis will limit their actions inside Lebanon.” Although Israel has warned that its military offensives in Lebanon and Gaza will continue, the most likely result is that negotiations will end the stand-off and some kind of agreement will be reached to return the three captured Israeli soldiers in exchange for a release of a number of prisoners. In Gaza, Israel will also want to ensure

that the Qassam rockets which are frequently fired into Israel are halted. Israel has ruled out direct negotiations, but has not excluded indirect talks through outside mediators.

If Hizbullah is able to negotiate the release of prisoners in exchange for the two Israeli soldiers, then it will emerge much stronger. If Hamas too can strike a deal over the soldier it

has captured, then the military wing of the Palestinian militant group may emerge stronger than its political wing.

The Israeli government will want to ensure that it emerges looking strong in the face of these major challenges. But prime minister Ehud Olmert may find it much harder now to press ahead with his plan to consolidate Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. Some politicians on the right and some even from within his own party, are now suggesting the Israeli military needs to remain heavily deployed across the West Bank in the future. — The Guardian