Tony Blair may hang on as Britain’s PM for a few more months but as an international leader he is already history. When Russia’s Vladimir Putin talks European energy security or Kosovo these days, he talks to Germany, leader of the EU and G8. When George Bush looks for a European partner, he increasingly looks to Chancellor Angela Merkel. These are the dog days of the Blair era. Almost unnoticed, Blair has become an ex-poodle.

Merkel inadvertently pressed home the point on February 6 during a Middle East peacemaking tour of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf that left the foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, trailing in her wake. Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict tops Blair’s legacy list of things to do. But Merkel has more to show so far for her more pragmatic, candid approach. She personally persuaded Bush to accept the linkage between Iraq and a wider Middle East settlement — a feat that long eluded Blair. One practical result was US agreement to revive the Quartet negotiating forum.

And avoiding the Blair mistake of being perceived as Washington’s gofer, Merkel appears determined to keep lines of communication open to Damascus and Tehran. And a high-level meeting with Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security council chief, is possible at this weekend’s Munich security conference.

Officials characterise Merkel’s Middle East initiatives as part of a wider effort to increase EU power. This approach, mirroring her commitment to an EU constitution, extends to strong German backing for the UN plan to hand over responsibility for Kosovo to Brussels, a continuing EU commitment in Afghanistan, and a more effective common security and defence policy. Merkel’s efforts face familiar challenges from east and west. Both Russia and the US want European alliances and markets yet neither relishes an over-powerful EU.

According to Jorg Himmelreich of the German Marshall Fund, Germany and Europe have still not come to terms with the political implications of Russia’s reviving economic power. And in other areas Russia still represented a potential threat. For Eberhard Sandschneider of the German Council on Foreign Relations, the main challenge lies elsewhere. “US-German relations are back to normal on the surface after the Schroder years. But I am not so sure,” he said. “We do not share the same interests, strategies and perceptions. Iraq is one example. Climate change is another.

“The common glue of the cold war has gone. The fight against terrorism has not replaced it. And nobody wants a nuclear Iran. But our American friends have made major mistakes ... We oppose military action. We must talk to the Iranians.” All Merkel’s efforts to make Europe an equal partner with the US could be destroyed in a moment by a US military attack on Iran, Sandschneider said. EU unity would also shatter. “It would be the end of NATO. It would be the end of the US-European consensus on how to deal with security threats. It would be

disastrous.” —The Guardian