Kathmandu, April 23:

World trade growth slid to 5.5 per last year from 8.5 per cent in 2006 and may post even less in 2008 — at about 4.5 per cent — as sharp economic deceleration in key developed countries is only partly offset by continuing strong growth in emerging economies, according to World Trade Organisation (WTO).

WTO economists cautioned that their preliminary assessment of 2007 trade figures and forecasts for this year have been unusually difficult to gauge due to the uncertainty caused by sharp market fluctuations.

The financial market turbulence that has considerably red-uced economic growth projecti-ons for some major developed markets, has clouded prospects for world trade in 2008.

The present economic growth forecast for the markets is 1.1 per cent. For developing countries, the forecast is at above five per cent, which could result in world output growth of 2.6 per cent and a global trade expansion of about 4.5 per cent in real terms, that is, discounting inflation.

“These are uncertain and troubling times for the global economy,” WTO director-general Pascal Lamy, said “To date, the financial market turmoil, significant price surges and slow-down of developed economies have not led to a disruption of trade. But protectionist pressures are building as policymakers seek answers to the problems that confront us.”

“A reinforced trading system is an essential anchor for economic stability and development. Clearly, the best way to achieve this is to conclude the Doha Development round. The time for posturing and delay has ended. What we need now is action.”

The preliminary figure of 5.5 per cent trade growth for 2007 is slightly lower than the six per cent forecast last year. The global economy and world trade started to slow down in 2007 due to the deceleration of demand in the developed regions. North America showed the weakest growth in output, measured as gross domestic product (GDP).

Developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States region, however, ma-intained or strengthened their expansion of output, contributing more than 40 per cent of wo-rld output growth in 2007.

Developing countries’ share of world merchandise trade (exports plus imports) reached

a new record level of 34 per cent in 2007.

These two groups of countries are expected to record faster growth in imports than exports.