London, November 15

Inflation numbers from the United States on Tuesday could provide the final domino in the Federal Reserve’s track to raise interest rates next month.

Earlier in November a robust report on US employment hardened expectations for the Fed’s first rate increase in nearly a decade and if prices are shown to be rising steadily those views will likely solidify.

Reuters polls see inflation at 1.9 per cent year-on-year, unchanged from the previous reading.

Minutes from the Fed’s October meeting will also be published, giving an insight into the committee’s decision to remove a key sentence on global risks from its policy statement.

“We have had a strong October jobs report and Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself referring to a December rate rise as a ‘live possibility’ for the first time,” said Chris Hare, economist at Investec. “The coming week should shed a little more light on the prospects for tightening this year.”

While most US data has been relatively upbeat, retail sales rose less than expected in October, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending that could temper expectations of a strong pickup in fourth-quarter economic growth.

In the meantime, Britain’s Bank of England (BoE) was once pegged as likely to be the first major central bank to tighten policy but prices fell again last month, data will probably show on Tuesday.

With inflation so far below its two per cent target the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) won’t be raising its benchmark rate from a record low 0.5 per cent until at least April, a Reuters poll found, putting it several months behind the US Fed.

British retail sales numbers on Thursday will offer clues as to how consumers are faring.