Caste equations likely to play crucial role in Dhanusha

Janakpurdham, December 2

Three out of four Dhanusha constituencies are likely to witness main contest between the candidates of two parties while one constituency is likely to witness triangular contest in the  second phase of provincial and parliamentary polls.

Dhanusha-1 constituency is likely to witness main rivalry between the left alliance’s candidate Matrika Prasad Yadav and Nepali Congress’ candidate Anand Prasad Dhungana. Yadav, is considered a devoted and selfless leader is expected to get votes of those from his caste. Yadavs are in majority in this constituency.

CPN-UML’s parliamentary proportional representation candidate Yog Narayan Yadav, who blame Matrika for his indictment in a murder case, may support Dhungana to exact revenge with Matrika. Yog Narayan believes Matrika framed him in the murder case.  Yog Narayan Yadav was released on personal recognisance 15 days ago.

Dhungana who is seen as a devoted NC leader with considerable clout in his party is expected to get committed votes plus Pahadi votes. He, however, might not get all Pahadi votes as some Pahadi votes could go to Deepak Karki, the candidate from Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal.

Dhanusha-2 is likely to witness a triangular contest between left alliance candidate Ram Chandra Jha, NC candidate Ram Chandra Jha and FSFN candidate Uma Shankar Argariya. Jha’s advantage is that he is the only candidate of the UML and the CPN-MC but his advantage is that some voters say he kept changing parties.

Yadav’s advantage is that he represented this district in both the CA elections under the PR electoral systems. Yadav, who belongs to Majroit clan, is also trying to polarise between Majroit and Ghosin clans of Yadavs. FSF-N candidate Argariya is Ghosin Yadav. Mandals are the second largest ethnic community in this constituency. Sah and other OBCs are the third largest ethnic community in this electoral district.

Dhanusha-3 is the most keenly watched constituency in Dhanusha district as Nepali Congress candidate Bimalendra Nidhi and Rastriya Janata Party Nepal candidate Rajendra Mahato are expected to fight a fierce competition.

Dhanusha-4 is likely to witness main rivalry between the left alliance candidate Raghuvir Mahaseth and Nepali Congress’ Mahendra Yadav. Mahaseth had lost election from this constituency in last CA election but since his party the CPN-UML and the CPN MC have forged electoral alliance, he expects to gain advantage.

This is a mixed constituency of   Koiri, Yadav, Sah and Pahadi voters.  There is significant chunk of Pahadi voters who are expected to vote for Mahaseth. NC candidate Mahendra Yadav is expected to get committed votes and Yadav votes but some party cadres are said to be unhappy with him for ‘favouring factionalism in the district politics.’