It is difficult to say at this point which way the political course will take. The problem will be solved if the coalition partners realise their actual capacity and claim the seats accordingly instead of bargaining unrealistically. Similarly, Prime Minister Deuba should also show respect to the Shekhar faction as he does to the coalition partners
The election fever has gripped the whole of the country with the announcement of the federal and provincial poll to be held in mid-November. The coalition and the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) are likely to lock their horns as they had in the last local election. The results are difficult to predict due to the sew-saw battle between these rivals compounded by new possibilities looming on the political horizon.
The coalition was blamed for the dismal performance marked by the unavailability of fertiliser at the peak of the farming season. It was also held responsible for the sagging economy of the country. Still people put faith in the coalition. The Nepali Congress (NC) bagged 329 seats and even the Maoist-Centre (MC) improved marginally with 121 wins against all expectations when compared to its last performance. The coalition registered a remarkable conquest pushing the UML to second position from the first position it had enjoyed in the last election.
Will the people continue their support for the coalition or will they make a shift towards the UML? This is the question resonating in the political arena of the country. The result of the local election has sent a warning to the political parties by crowning the independent candidate in the heart of the country, the Kathmandu Metropolitan City. This phenomenon could be observed in a few other places like Dharan and the Dhangadhi municipalities.
An independent party has been formed, which has provided a platform for those disappointed with the performance of the political parties. A loose network of independent candidates also has been installed to contest in the forthcoming election.
Furthermore, the left parties of the coalition have been mooting the idea of a socialist forum, thus creating a coalition inside the coalition. It has been portrayed as a bargaining ploy for receiving more seats from the Nepali Congress, mainly by the MC.
The coalition has been a dire necessity in view of its indispensability to form the government. There is no possibility of the NC or the UML or any other party securing a majority solitarily. The coalition is then here to stay and cannot be wished out of existence under the present constitutional dispensation.
The distribution of seats has been like a Pandora's box for the coalition partners. Whilst the main partner, the NC, has understandably claimed far more number of seats, on either side of 100 out of 165, the other partners have followed suit by expecting, what observers, feel as undeserving. For example, the MC has been eyeing for 60 seats leaving only 5 for the other coalition partners. Even though it is considered as a mere bargain to begin with, it certainly shows the growing ambition of the coalition partners.
What will happen in the days to come? The Indian example can be an eye opener because of several proximities that Nepal shares with its southern neighbor. For example, the beginning of the coalition culture is surprisingly similar in both the countries. Whilst the coalition culture in India took off with the undemocratic highhandedness of Indira Gandhi following the imposition of the Emergency, it emerged in Nepal with a similar autocratic move of K P Oli, the UML leader. He dissolved the Parliament not on one but two occasions despite the dissolution being pronounced as anti-constitutional by the Supreme Court.
In India, whether it be the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Indian Congress (IC), the coalition heavy weights retain more than 75 per cent of the total number of seats. They contested in 437 and 421 places in the 2019 election out of 543 seats. That would mean that the NC should have claimed 125 seats out of 165. The victory in 500 seats by the coalition with 329, 121, 30 and 20 seats by the NC, MC, the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and the United Socialists (US) in the local elections will also allow for the NC to demand 105 seats. So, the request for 100 to 110 seats is justified for the NC. The MC, JSP and US should be content with 40, 10 and 5 seats if the last local election is to be taken as a basis.
It is natural for the senior partner of the coalition to expect majority seats as does the BJP and has ended up achieving this target in the last two elections of 2019 and 2014. For securing the majority, or 83 seats, the NC has to contest in at least 105 seats, allowing for an 80 per cent victory, which is a very tall order. In that sense, its request for 100 seats is not wide off the mark.
The other alternative is then to go for a minimal coalition, which means a wedlock of only the NC and MC in order to satisfy the claims of both the NC and MC of the expectation of 100 and 60 seats respectively. That would mean saying goodbye to the JSP and US which is less likely when the NC is wooing the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party into the coalition fold.
The present political scenario is marked by a frantic bid of the NC to hold the coalition opposed by that of the UML to create political fissures in it. It is, however, a Herculean task indeed for both the sides. Besides, the NC has to put its house in order because of the dissenting Shekhar Koirala faction. It has to satisfy the coalition partners in the distribution of seats.
It is then difficult to say at this point which way the political course will take. The problem will be solved if the coalition partners realise their actual capacity and claim the seats accordingly instead of bargaining unrealistically. Similarly, Prime Minister Deuba should also show similar respect to the Shekhar faction as he does to the coalition partners. This is an acid test that the Prime Minister will have to undergo in the days to come.
A version of this article appears in the print on August 17, 2022 of The Himalayan Times.
