North Korea’s launching of seven missiles into the Sea of Japan Tuesday was not only a reminder that Pyongyang plays hardball, but also that President Bush’s refusal to engage in negotiations with the North reflects an incoherent policy. The Bush administration downplayed the event. The unspoken reason for downplaying the missile firings is to pretend they do not bolster North Korea’s argument that the only way to make it cede its nuclear and missile programmes is to conduct direct negotiations with it.

Instead, Bush is pursuing new sanctions. The fallacy of this approach is that sanctions make North Korea less pliant. The standoff that led to the missile launches originated in financial sanctions slapped on North Korea. The North refused to return to six-party talks in Beijing. And after Bush declined the North’s invitation for the lead American negotiator to come to Pyongyang, the North warned it would have to strengthen its deterrent.

A resort to new sanctions cannot solve the problem. There is no realistic chance of achieving regime change in Pyongyang at a tolerable price any time soon. But while hardliners entertain that fantasy, the North’s store of fissile material continues to grow. The Bush policy fails to cope with the threat of a nuclear arms race in Asia and a potential source for a terrorist nuclear weapon.