Close on the heels of the encounter between the security forces and the Maoist rebels in Rupendehi, another has taken place in Kavre (February 27) in which three security men were killed and three others, two civilians and a soldier, were wounded. The same day in Pokhara, two security men and eleven civilians were injured when a bomb, planted by the rebels in a downtown area to blow up a vehicle belonging to the security forces, went off. These, and other recent incidents, leave little doubt that violence will continue, probably intensify, in days to come. Chaitra, the next month, could make things even more uncertain, as it will be characterised by Maoist bandhs and blockades as well as by protest programmes of the seven-party alliance.

At the same time, there may well be efforts on foot to bring the Maoists and the mainline political parties together, particularly after US ambassador James F Moriarty’s recent flurry of activities aimed at detaching the parties from their 12-point agreement with the Maoists that makes the constituent assembly election the bottom line to resolve the present crisis. This deep extraneous interest will hardly pass without political repercussions, but only time will tell to what extent. This fence-mending effort may have been dictated by the hugeness of the task. But the fact is that the palace and parties were united until their recent parting of the ways, without denting the insurgency, which grew from strength to strength. There is, however, no doubt that a palace-parties reconciliation would clear the way for interested foreigners to resume supply of lethal arms to the Royal Nepalese Army.

Few think the prescription in question would achieve peace and democracy, at least with minimal casualties. Reconciliation is a good idea. No doubt about it. Many, including the US ambassador, agree that the situation is going out of hand, which calls for immediate corrective initiative. But the approaches of the powers that matter differ. Most Nepalis, including those in the political parties, do not, however, believe that a parties-palace compromise alone would be enough for peace and democracy. As even Nepal’s major arms suppliers have repeatedly said that there is no military solution to the Maoist conflict, the need to open a dialogue with the Maoists soon enough cannot be overemphasised. Those who see in the parties-palace patchup alone a cure for the present ills are yet to provide a way out of the imbroglio. This lack of clarity seems to be a sure-fire recipe for a more protracted conflict.