Nepal is finally in the firing line of Sudarshan Chakra (the deadly weapon Lord Krishna was possessed of) as per the blueprint I had brought out in THT on August 18, 2003, with an intention of not provoking the political owners but deterring them from using it lest “all hell will befall us.”

But to my dismay, King Gyanendra did launch it on February 1, 2005 and, in retaliation, the political parties have done it on April 6, 2006. The third warrior, the Maoists are yet to use theirs that “can inflict much greater and horrendous damage to our society.” Strategically, they will use their chakra against the King, if and when necessary as per the 12-point accord between the seven parties and the Maoists. Maoist leader Prachand is just on the lookout when to land in Kathmandu to take the lead of the peaceful movement, if possible, and the violent assault, if necessary.

The King had used his chakra composed of the army, the police and the state machinery against his enemies — violent as well as non-violent by declaring a state of emergency and suspension of individual freedoms. Over 14 months of his direct takeover, he cajoled his adversaries to unite by leaving no room for accommodation of the non-violent political parties within his scheme of governance; and when they really did in New Delhi with the 12-point understanding, he started complaining. Bl-aming the Maoists for ‘infiltrating’ the pea-ceful movement of the seven parties sounds illogical and ludicrous. What better do we expect of the Maoists than to raise slogans peacefully instead of gunning down the security forces just ‘to be heard’ by the state?

The parties lost so much in the process of haggling with the palace over the last 43 months that they have nothing to lose any more. So they stand, under the currently rising political movement, to lose nothing but to gain everything. They too are in the possession of this chakra with which they “can create far greater chaos in the country (than their agitation against regression in 2003) even by non-violent means. If pushed to the wall, they can be as dangerous as any other violent force in the country. They can, if they like, disrupt the nationwide transportation system, close down the educational and health services and bring the whole country to a standstill.” It took 33 months for the parties to fulfil this agenda. Nevertheless, they did it with the result that they have now positioned itself in an advantageous situation vis-à-vis the King.

The reality of the nearly two-week-old movement is that some demonstrators have lost their lives, some limbs, some eyes and many of them their blood. But in terms of power, it is the King who stands to lose partly or wholly depending upon his understanding of the grave situation and his sagacity to respond to the new situation. People naturally compare the current popular upsurge with that of 1990. But the difference between then and now is that the 1990 People’s Movement was against an autocratic system that was demolished leaving the King physically unaffected. But this time there is no system as such to dismantle. It is, thus, the King himself who is being made the direct target of the popular anger. What the leaders are shy of spelling out the actual goal of their struggle for democracy, the slogans in the streets have made it straight and clear. The fair-minded people are, therefore, worrying, unlike in the last movement, not about the monarchy or the monarch but about the post-monarchy period as to how it could be made less painful.

Going by the nature of the movement, it looks as if, under King Gyanendra’s rule, Nepal is reversing the historic process of integration that his forefather Prithvi Narayan Shah had achieved 237 years ago by unifying the Baisi and Chaubisi rajyas, as the numerous mountain principalities were called. The unified Nepal looks today disintegrating into similar number of territorial regimes triggered by the declaration of Chitwan as the lokatantric (democratic) region closely followed by many others. The Maoists are, of course, the pioneers in superimposing their territorial system like the Magarat and Khambuwan on the Nepali map. If the peaceful struggle prolongs like the violent insurgency, the map will have to be reprinted with several names superimposed.

With the mounting international concern over growing human rights violations, especially firing upon the peaceful demonstrators, Nepal is not far from succumbing to external intervention like in Bosnia, Afghanistan or Iraq. We are aware that international intervention is a common practice rather than an exception in recent years. One needs to find a cause celebre that is aplenty amid us. Like in Afghanistan, one can come in to eliminate “terrorism” that the government is harping on. Like in Iraq, one can gatecrash to penalise killing of innocent people as the opposition is charging. Like in Bosnia, one can enter to stop “ethnic cleansing” or like in Sudan, one can rush in on humanitarian grounds.

Shrestha is co-ordinator, Volunteers Mediators Group for Peace