The unilateral ceasefire called by the Maoists and the 12-point understanding of the seven-party alliance with them was an opportunity for the monarch, the Maoists and the political parties to rethink their respective roles and resolve the current conflict. But the government’s insensitivity and the end of the ceasefire are likely to further polarise Nepali politics, thereby intensifying the conflict. If conflict prolongs, forces of regression will further consolidate around the monarchy using it as a shield to resist necessary changes in the society. Advocates of radical change will intensify their attack on the monarchy as the root cause of Nepal’s misery and its abolition would be seen as the ultimate remedy. Believers in multiparty democracy and constitutional-ceremonial monarchy seeking peaceful, democratic and progressive changes will be further squeezed.

Complicating the situation, the major global and regional players will push political parties and monarchy for a united front against the Maoists. The parties, on the other hand, may see monarchy as the main obstacle to popular aspirations. In a two-pronged confrontation, the majority will go aga-inst the monarchy expecting the Maoists to move to the democratic-progressive political centre. And the global-regional environment will render the Maoists’ rise on its own untenable. It will be more difficult for the warring sides to come together, and it will be unrealistic to expect easy victory against the other militarily.

Neither authoritarianism nor totalitarianism is a viable option. Both will have to ultimately converge to the political centre, but after more death, destruction and despair. The following is the five-step plan which presents the best path back to democracy, peace and prosperity, without further bloodshed.

Firstly, the biggest difficulty after the King’s takeover is the absence of a venue, process and leadership for the political stakeholders to come to discuss their diverse visions. This vacuum makes restoration of the House of Representatives or a political conference and appointment of a Prime Minister at the recommendation of the seven-party alliance essential. An interim government could then undertake four specific mandates: End violence, bridge the confidence gap and bring the Maoists into the political mainstream, define a new age-nda, agree on key constitutional principles and hold polls. Election that further complicates the already serious political situation and increases violence is meaningless.

Secondly, to move out of the current crisis, Nepalis need no less than the resolve to create a new history, and embark on a new culture. This will require fundamental changes in the behaviour of the state, institutions and individuals. Everyone must be willing to change and compromise — higher the position bigger the sacrifice.

Thirdly, the crisis of confidence among the political actors is the most serious problem. The most serious confidence gap revolves around the role of monarchy in the democratic political dispensation. The monarch’s ambition for an active role can only mean disaster for the institution. On the other hand, the Maoists have to realise that the power of the gun may force some into submission but will not win the confidence of the people as violence has no place in a democracy. There is also the crisis of confidence between the NC and the CPN-UML. For multiparty democracy to succeed, consensus among the main actors on major issues of national interest, security and foreign policy is vital. Internal democracy, transparency and accountability will restore people’s faith in the parties.

Fourthly, if a broad-based political consensus is essential to end violence and build confidence, such a consensus and confidence building for reconciliation, reform and reconstruction can only revolve around a bold new agenda of inclusive democracy and restructuring of the state. If ending violence is the first priority, bringing the Maoists into the political mainstream is the first step for any future political settlement to be credible and lasting. Only the commitment of the three political forces to liberty and law, economics of free enterprise, social justice and pragmatism will restore the confidence of the people in them.

Lastly, experience has shown serious anomalies in the Constitution and its application. How to restore the constitutional process is an important task. There is no option but to have a new constitution drafted by an elected Constituent Assembly.

Convergence on an agenda of reconciliation, reform and reconstruction is possible if the political forces see the death, destruction and despair that their actions or inactions are causing, if they realise every war has a peaceful solution and if they are willing to change, compromise and sacrifice before events force them to do so. A peaceful, independent, democratic and prosperous Nepal must be the meeting point for all nationalist, democratic or progressive Nepalis and their well-wishers.

Dr Simkhada was a Nepali envoy in Geneva