Nina Hachigian:

North Korea’s declaration that it has nuclear weapons is bad news not just for the US, but also for China. Already sharing borders with nuclear-armed Russia, India, and Pakistan, the last thing China wants is an expansion of Asia’s nuclear neighbourhood.

China’s leaders must now decide how far they are willing to go to put the nuclear genie back in the bottle in North Korea. China has significant leverage, because it supplies much of the fuel and food that North Korea needs to survive and is the North’s major trading partner and closest ally. China’s policy toward North Korea’s nuclear programme has long been based on two principles: that the Korean peninsula must be free of nuclear weapons, and that the dispute over the North’s nuclear policies must be resolved peacefully. The six-party talks involving China, the US, North and South Korea, Japan, and Russia hold the only hope of achieving both aims.

But if North Korea’s withdrawal from the talks stands, or if a resumption of the talks ultimately fails to persuade the North to give up nuclear weapons, China will be forced to make a tough choice about which of its two principles is more important. For Beijing, the strategic stakes involved with North Korea going nuclear are extremely high. A nuclear-armed North could produce a cascade effect, leading South Korea, Japan, and even Taiwan to consider developing nuclear weapons in response. More nuclear powers would make East Asia less stable. A nuclear Japan would be a particularly threatening outcome for China. Moreover, the Chinese know that if North and South Korea eventually reunited, the resulting country would eventually become a powerful force in the region that would decide its own geopolitical destiny. China would like to prevent that future country from having nuclear weapons.

China also wants to stand shoulder to shoulder with the US when it can. China’s strategy for growing its own economy is heavily dependent on a strong American relationship, both economically and politically. Leaders of China’s Communist Party know that a strong domestic economy is what allows them to retain power. For all these reasons, China may decide to align with those in the US and Japan who insist that the only way to solve the nuclear weapons crisis is to put the economic squeeze on North Korea. But if China were to cut off food and fuel shipments, the North’s economy would be crippled and its government might collapse, resulting situation could be very destabilising for China.

But there are also grave dangers for China if it refuses to apply pressure. Economic sanctions against North Korea can have a major effect only with Chinese participation. So if America advocates sanctions and China refuses to join in, US-Chinese relations would suffer. China would like to avoid such tensions in the relationship with its second-largest trading partner.

Though they have been on different sides in the past, the US and China have a mutual interest in a non-nuclear and stable Korea. It is this mutual interest that could prompt the two nations to work closely to get North Korea to return to the negotiating table and eventually give up nuclear weapons. China and the US would both be winners with that outcome. — The Christian Science Monitor