Iran’s response to the nuclear incentives package offered by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) plus Germany (P5+1) is a sign that there could be tough bargaining ahead of the August 31 deadline for this country to stop uranium enrichment or face sanctions.

Ali Larijani, Iran’s chief negotiator, who handed over the response to the envoys of Britain, US, France, Russia, China and Germany, on Tuesday, complained of impatience shown in taking the issue to the UNSC, even before Iran could respond to the package of incentives. He was also reported as saying that Iran had, on UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s request, tried to study the package in a positive light.

While the contents of the response letter have not been disclosed, Iranian officials said it offered great possibilities for future negotiations with the big powers and opened up a “constructive” path. Larijani had, on Tuesday, asked the P5+1 to return to the negotiating table quickly to reach an understanding with Iran on the package, including the nuclear issue and the long-term economic and technical cooperation, leading to better security in the region.

On Monday, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei set the tone by declaring that Tehran would not give up its nuclear programme, deadline or not. There was no criticism of the nuclear policy in the press but then the country’s Supreme National Security Council has warned media not to run anything that could damage the country’s national security. Little store is being set by the news that Mohammad Al-Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will be making on Iran’s compliance with the NPT.

“Iran is almost certain the IAEA will report not being able to verify Iran’s compliance with the NPT. And in the light of statements made before, by Larijani and others, it seems very unlikely that Iran has consented to suspension of enrichment and reprocessing,” said a political analyst in Tehran, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “The resolution says if Iran doesn’t stop all enrichment activities before August 31, sanctions are going to be imposed but as long as there are not too serious threats and the country can sell its petroleum at high prices, Iran will not have great concerns about the sanctions. Iran’s greatest fear is US military action and that sounds far-fetched in the present situation,” he added.

“The West has moved forward from its position and has acknowledged Iran’s right to have nuclear technology. Now Iran wants concrete guarantees to know what it will lose in return for what it gains, so they don’t want to rule out talks altogether,” the analyst said. “So far the West has tried to offer a package of incentives to Iran but from now on it seems both parties will act more on the basis of the role that disincentives are going to play. Eventually, one can gain a better understanding of the direction Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West is moving in September, at the UNSC,” the analyst said. — IPS