KATHMANDU, NOVEMBER 8

The country is witnessing periodic elections, which have ensured the acceptance of the supremacy of adult franchise. On November 20, both the general and provincial elections will be held in a single phase. It is apparent that the political situation of the country is shrouded in confusion with many political parties contesting the elections.

Given the large number of political parties, it has become hard to predict the election results. Out of the 116 political parties registered with the Election Commission, 84 parties have applied to take part in the general election.

With time, the elections have become a labyrinth, adding confusion about the results due to various uncertainties. All the parties are known to exaggerate their commitments in their manifestos as a strategy to win the favor of the voters. But various factors can be analysed to bring us close to the reality about the outcome of the upcoming election.

The five-party alliance led by the Nepali Congress (NC), with the CPN-Maoist Centre (MC), CPN-Unified Socialist, Rastriya Janamorcha and Loktantrik Samajwadi Party as partners, is likely to have an upper hand when they vie with the arch-rival, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN- UML), which is partnering in some places with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and People's Socialist party. Despite these two unprincipled coalitions, majority of the seats are likely to be won by the NC, followed by the CPN-UML.

The MC, as usual, will get their third premium position though it is hard to predict the fourth largest party right now.

The coalition effect had already borne fruit in the 2017 general elections with the alliance of the CPN- UML, CPN-MC and left parities winning 106 of the 165 First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) seats and 68 of the 110 Proportion Representation (PR) seats, coming close to a twothirds majority. This time also, none of the solitary parties is likely to secure a clear majority, hence the government will be formed with the support of two or more parties that can bring a majority in the House.

This result can also be analysed from the perspective drawn from the results of the local election, where the five-party coalition led by the NC swept the votes in 753 local units, with the UML slumping to second position. The general election results, thus, are likely to emulate the local election.

On the other hand, banking on the success of the May 13 local election, where 384 independent candidates sealed victory with 12 mayors, 4 deputy mayors, 136 ward chairs, and 232 ward members, a plethora of independents have also filed their candidacy in the general election.

The famous wins of Mayor Balen Sah, Harka Bahadur Rai, Gopal Hamal, Manoj Sah from Kathmandu Metropolitan, Dharan Sub-metropolitan, Janakpurdham Sub-metropolitan, and Dhangadi Sub-metropolitan cities, respectively are still creating ripples in the country.

In 2017, there was only one candidate from Humla who made his way to the Lower House of Parliament from as many as 502 independent candidates who contested the election.

With a wave of independent candidates rising to 867 this time, they are likely to secure some 3-4 seats.

Also, rebel candidates trespassing as independent candidates from different parties may add to the tally, though minimally as compared to independents without any affiliation with the political parties. Some of the independent/ rebel candidates are supported by both the major coalitions for fulfilling their vested interests or to harm their rivals.

The election results of Kathmandu's constituencies have time and again surprised the parties and voters. The fact is, when there are politically aware voters, they think on their own and cannot be brainwashed.

In retrospect, Nani Maiya Dahal, a 37-year-old divorcee, though dubbed as the dark horse, won the 1981 election from Kathmandu, propelling her into the nation's highest legislative body.

Although the Maoist candidates did surprisingly well in Kathmandu in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections, they were wiped out in the 2013 elections.

With the slogan of alternative politics, Bibeksheel Nepali Party's Ranju Darshana came close but failed to win the 2017 local election for Kathmandu's mayor. Bibeksheel Sajha party chairman Rabindra Mishra too lost the 2017 general election by a narrow margin.

Balen Shah's landslide victory is another example to prove the capability of Kathmandu's denizens to think clearly. So, this time it is likely to give some unusual results as some of the top aspirants are vying from the different constituencies as independents.

The most politically aware voters reside in Kathmandu, the capital. A study done by America-based researchers too stressed that highly educated people take voting as a civic duty and their education level is associated with the likelihood of overreporting voting as a part of their political behaviour. Given this, some of the big names, even former and incumbent (prime) ministers, are likely to face sheer disappointment as their dream of getting into the parliament may be broken.

Only six parties - UML, NC, CPN-MC, CPN (Unified Socialist), People's Socialist Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party - in the House have been awarded 'national party' status after the 2017 general elections.

Apparently, these parties are likely to keep their spots safe. Nevertheless, Rastriya Swatantra Party is most likely to barge into the House with the title of national party by winning more than one seat under the FPTP and easily crossing the threshold of 3 per cent seats under the PR as the craze towards the party is overwhelming as people are seen flocking in their pre-election campaigns.

Also, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, with the agenda of constitutional monarchy and Hindu state, may enter to become a national party.

The frustration towards the orthodox parties is likely to benefit the new parties as many people may vote for them just to vent their ire to the former parties that have not been able to meet the promises made, as they perpetually showed a lack of ethics

Joshi is the author of two novels - Rockin' Rollin' Rolpa and Foolproof

A version of this article appears in the print on November 9, 2022 of The Himalayan Times.