MAY 06

Dr Michael H Glantz is a political scientist. In the early 1970s, Glantz shifted his research from wars of national liberation to understanding climate's impact on society and society's impacts on Climate. He was NCAR's only Senior Social Scientist in its 60-year history.

In 2008 he moved to the University of Colorado as director of the Consortium for Capacity Building. He has written or edited a total of 30+ books, and many are articles on linkages between climate, water, weather, and society.

In 2019 he published 'One Belt One Road: China's Long March Toward 2049.' Bal Krishna Sah of The Himalayan Times talked to him about geopolitics and climate challenge. Excerpts:

Is the Belt and Road Initiative a challenge to the US or a positive initiative by China for the entire world?

It can be both. It can be a challenge to the US, Europe, Russia, and India. It's a challenge to everybody. When president Xi Jinping announced the BRI or firstly One Belt One Road (OBOR) in 2013. It was really a good initiative. They made trillions of dollars earlier, before COV- ID. And they decided to put the money into trade not aid. More trade and development, some grants, some loans. The loans became problematic.

They were reaching out to other countries and letting companies make all the arrangements such as low interests loans, but the Chinese companies were investing in projects that may not be sustainable, or projects that did not meet the conditions of Western banks.

So, it was easier to go to China and say oh! I am going to get some needed infrastructure, which the West should have been giving but didn't. Problem arises when you default on your loan. The first visible case was Sri Lanka. They took the port on lease for 99 years and that gave the West the opportunity to say 'China is creating debt'. It's debt diplomacy. So, China beat the West. The West does not have the money to counter China's initiative because they give aid and distribute their money in different ways and their banks operate differently.

COVID gave a chance to countries to rethink whether they should take loan. So, COVID turned out to be a positive break for both OBOR recipients and China.

The Chinese tend not to forgive loans, but Western banks often forgive loans. They were sleeping while China got the story and head line and that was clever.

How can Nepal turn its geopolitical challenges into opportunity?

There is the expression that Nepal is between a rock and a hard place geopolitically. You know, everyone has problems with one another. Like the West has with India, India has a problem with the west. The West has a problem with India not doing certain things regarding Ukraine. So, it's all into an oven.

The best that Nepal can do is somehow not play them against each other but to remain neutral even though it will be perceived as not neutral. If it is nicer to China, India gets mad. If it is nicer to India, China gets mad. So, Nepal has to figure out how to play them because Nepal is not strong enough to beat either one. So, it's all about how to use geography to its advantage. Nepal has to be very cleverly diplomatic. Nepali leaders have to sleep with one eye open. I mean they have to worry about India or china.

China has two things. China has Tibet to protect. It's not just China. And, there is another side too. There is another province with other countries. So, China wants a buffer, but it does not want Nepal to be so pro-India like it's India on the edge. There is no miracle cure. It just happened to be born in a difficult spot.

How can a generational war between old elites and the young generation be stopped?

Who influences the young generation? In the US, where parents are democrats, kids are most likely to be democrats. So, it's ideology before a kid even has any idea what the word means. So, I think it's human nature, you get different opinions on how to run a railroad, how to run a city, how to run a government and they compete for attention. There is no perfect government. Even Switzerland has problems with the banks and everything.

So, I don't know what you can do about human nature. I think youth have to be involved in early careers as young professionals. They need to be included in the discussions. They must have a seat at the table. But not every youth is a youth you want at the table. You know, they have to understand.

For example, Trump, who we elected was very popular with a subset of people, but he was a terrible president. Everything he did was ineffective. But for some reasons he became like a cult leader and tried to destroy the constitution. So, basically he is running for president to destroy the constitution, which allows him to be the president. Many congress men are like that, authoritarian. So it's very tough.

How do you think Nepal can maintain political stability?

We can look at a country like Ecuador, which has had four presidents in one year. They dropped the currency there because it was fluctuating crazily. They then went to the US Dollar. El Salvador, the same, they hoped and went for the crypto (Bitcoin) for currency. How did they do that? I think there are other countries that have gone through similar situations with rapid turnover of the government. It's instability. The problem is, at some point, people will go for what they think will give them stability and that's more authoritarian. That's the tendency that some voices rise from the mass saying they are fighting. Then somebody says oh! Let's take control in our old hands. That's what they did in Hungary, which was trying to go democratic. They picked a guy who immediately started the change. The legislature and control of stuff like that is a real tool. There are examples, and maybe you could explore.