Political coalitions have formed the living reality of Nepali politics because of the existing provisions in the constitution that has made it virtually impossible to have a majority by any political party.

Accordingly, political coalitions have been on a making and breaking spree especially after the announcement of the Federal Constitution of Nepal by the Constituent Assembly. Consequently, the coalition led by the Nepali Congress (NC) has fallen following the familiar somersault by Prime Minister Prachanda to join the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) camp.

The NC was caught virtually unawares of the meteoric change of the camp by the Prime Minister to which it has labeled as political dishonesty. The Prime Minister in turn has described it as a necessary step to realise his vision of social change and development, which were not possible with the NC-led coalition. There is a need of objective analysis in the midst of this allegation by the opposing factions against each other.

Any objective analysis has to be logical and real. Logic has assumption, proposition and conclusion. For example, the assumption is that animals are four-footed barring a few exceptions. A cow is four-footed. So, the cow is an animal. Similarly, one of the assumptions in politics is the supremacy of the people's mandate. The proposition is that the political parties should honour the peoples' mandate. The conclusion can be that the political parties that disregard the people's mandate are politically dishonest.

The reality is that the NC, Maoist Centre (MC), Unified Socialists (US), Rastriya Samajbadi Party (RSP) and the Rastriya Jana Morcha had entered into a coalition before the election and received 133 seats, five short of a majority. This coalition had been given the mandate by the people to work hand in glove till the next election because it had sought the people's verdict for a five-year term. But the present development has certainly shown disrespect to the mandate. Now, the question arises as to who is responsible for this state of affairs.

It is the MC which had crossed the floor to the UML on being denied the prime ministerial post in the immediate aftermath of the 2024 general election. The MC had corrected itself again by coming back to the NC-led coalition though after a short breach. But its escapade again, along with the RSP and US, is far from political honesty.

Earlier, the UML and MC had entered a pre-election coalition for the 2017 election, and they had been given an overwhelming mandate close to a two-thirds majority. But this political honeymooning did not last long. The unconstitutional step of then Prime Minister K P Oli to dissolve the Parliament, despite the verdict of the Supreme Court to the contrary, triggered this end. But Prachanda should have been able to prevent such a political event from happening. It then follows that Prachanda has disregarded the people's mandate not once but on two occasions.

Now coming to the NC, it has been alleged that it stopped the Prime Minister from relieving the non-performing ministers from their posts. In fact, the Prime Minister should have set an example by first firing the ministers of his own party who had been underperforming and were clouded in controversy. He should have then removed the ministers belonging to the other parties whom he thought were not up to the mark. Had the NC or US opposed it, then that would have been sufficient ground for quitting the coalition. It is because the Prime Minister has the prerogative to continue or discontinue with the service of a minister.

The other allegation of the Prime Minister regarding the decision of the NC party to go alone in the next election is wide off the mark in view of the people's mandate to go together only for five years. In fact, the MC and the US had themselves decided to fight the next election alone, and it also dismisses the allegation of the Prime Minister.

The loss of the MC coalition candidate in the Rajya Sabha election has been projected as political backstabbing by the NC, but a similar loss had been faced by NC candidate Amar Singh Pun in the provincial election. Such stray incidents should not be justification for breaking the coalition, which had received the people's mandate. The difference of opinion with the Finance Minister is something which the Prime Minister himself should have nipped in the bud.

So, the Prime Minister has been caught on the wrong foot time and again. Though he has been reduced to a mere shadow of his revolutionary self, lately he was doing exceedingly well by taming the corruption monster by putting top politicians, bureaucrats and business tycoons behind bars. He should have continued this good work instead of breaking the coalition. After all, this is a territory which proved to be inhabitable to him on two occasions following which he had to resort to the NC fold.

What will happen if this new coalition heads towards yet another fiasco? Will he again come to the NC fold and emulate Nitesh Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, recognised as Mr. Somersault? It will only increase the disenchantment of the people towards the government.

The UML has also imitated the MC. First, in the post-2017 election, it abused the people's mandate which had voted the UML-MC coalition near to a two-thirds majority. After the 2022 election, it tried to tie a political bogey with the MC, which however did not last long. But again it has tied a political knot with the MC, and more astonishingly with the US with whom it was at daggers drawn.

Surprisingly, the NC appears to have respected the political mandate both in the aftermath of the 2017 and 2022 elections. It has never deserted the coalition partners but has been left alone by them time and again.