KATHMANDU, MARCH 15

A study published in Information Geography journal shows that Nepal's forests are under severe threat from climate-exacerbated wildfires. The research, led by an international team of scientists, estimates that 170 million tonnes of soil carbon and 325 million tonnes of wood carbon could be released into the atmosphere if fire risks are unchecked, compounding global climate challenges.

This study was conducted by researchers from Arizona State University, Jackson State University, the University of Groningen, and Kathmandu Forestry College. The study used NASA Earth Observations and machine learning techniques to map fire risks over the last two decades. It is the first national-scale analysis of Nepal's fire-carbon biodiversity nexus.

According to the researchers, this is extremely important to Nepal as the forest fire season this year is in the beginning phase. It will peak near April and May.

According to them, fire-induced pollution could overwhelm hospitals with respiratory cases this year. It also adversely impacts the economy, as tourism-which accounts for 4 per cent of GDP-depends on protected areas now at risk. Additionally, it also threatens medicinal plants and Indigenous livelihoods.

On the other hand, there is a growing crisis in Nepal, particularly in the southern provinces of Nepal, including Lumbini, Madhes, and Sudurpaschim, which are at the highest wildfire risk. Six of Nepal's 20 protected areas, including Chitwan and Bardia National Parks, are under extreme threat, endangering rare species like Bengal tigers, one-horned rhinos, and wild elephants. Additionally, air quality in main cities (including Kathmandu) could deteriorate further due to increased wildfires.

Wildfire season has already begun in Nepal. According to recent data, wildfires are currently burning in 436 locations across 53 districts. The risk is expected to peak in April and May. 'Like the Los Angeles wildfire, Nepal is trapped in a carbon-temperature feedback loop,' said lead author Kshitij Dahal, a doctoral student at Arizona State University, USA. 'The difference is Nepal's fires threaten biodiversity found nowhere else on Earth.'

'Forest fires in Nepal are increasing. If we do not act now, we risk losing critical biodiversity and worsening global climate change within the next few months,' said Prof Ambika P Gautam of Kathmandu Forestry College. 'We urgently need better fire management to protect our forests and the people who depend on them.'

Dr Rocky Talchabhadel from Jackson State University, USA stated, 'Our models show that wildfire risk in Nepal's south has been rising since 2001. Without action, these fires could wipe out decades of conservation progress, potentially transforming vital carbon sinks into carbon sources.'

The study has urged for immediate fire mitigation strategies (community-led patrols, AI-based early warning systems), cross-border collaboration (leverage South Asian climate partnerships), global climate funding (prioritise Nepal's forests in COP30 agendas).

Dr Prajal Pradhan from the University of Groningen, the Netherlands, stressed the need for sustainable solutions. 'This isn't just about stopping fires. Nepal needs to design climate action and biodiversity protection initiatives that promote sustainable development. For example, sustainable forest management, including adequate harvesting of timber and non-timber products from forests, will reduce the risk of forest fire and protect Nepal's forests for the future.'

Similarly, Pashupati Nath Koirala, Director of StoryCycle, Climate and Forest, stated, 'Forest fires are most dense in isolated forest areas and along main roads. Many occur in protected areas due to both effective and ineffective management. These fires not only threaten biodiversity but also undermine Nepal's carbon trade benefits and its goal of becoming a net-zero carbon country by 2045.'