KATHMANDU, FEBRUARY 7 Anil Mahaseth, General Secretary of the Rastriya Mukti Party, stated that despite the fact that 45 candidates are running for the House of Representatives in Dhanusha-3, Madhes Province, the primary race will likely revolve around four or five candidates. Manish Jha from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Juli Mahato from the CPN-UML, Parameshwar Sah from the Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal (JSP-N), Ram Lalit Mandal from the Nepali Communist Party (NCP), Rajiv Jha from the Rastriya Mukti Party (RMP), and Bimalendra Nidhi from the Nepali Congress are among the top contenders. Nidhi, a former vice-president of the Nepali Congress and deputy prime minister, has twice been elected from the constituency, while Mahato is a former minister and incumbent lawmaker. Parmeshwar Sah of the JSP-N is a former provincial MP, and Jha of the RSP was elected as a proportional representative in the 2022 elections. The JSP's Sah and Jha of the RSP are running for the House of Representatives for the first time, while the NCP's Mandal and Rajiv Jha of the RMP are also running. The RSP, which has not previously participated in local or provincial assembly elections, lacks a grassroots organisational structure, but there is a wave of support for the RSP in Madhes due to Balendra (Balen) Shah's factor. The JSP-N and Rastriya Mukti Party both have organisations. Sah, the JSP-N candidate, was elected as a provincial assembly member from the Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) in 2017. He was also the RJP's chief whip in Madhes Province, leading the Madhes movement from the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party. Sah, who was defeated in the provincial assembly in 2022, has been nominated by the JSP-N to the House of Representatives. Vice President Rajiv Jha of the Rashtriya Mukti Party, led by Rajendra Mahato, is also running. Rajiv left Dhanusha-2 and ran for Mahato-elected Dhanusha-3 in 2017. Rajiv, who was defeated as a candidate for Dhanusha-2 in 2013, has established a reputation as a social activist in Dhanusha. He has served as chair of the 'Cloth Bank' and the Nepal-India Open Borders Dialogue Group. Mahaseth told THT, 'Dhanusha-3 carries meaning for Madhes and denizens of Janakpur. As a result, only candidates with a strong presence and charisma will be able to win this seat. We won this in 2017, defeating Nidhi, and we plan to regain ground this time.' Bimalendra, the son of Mahendra Narayan Nidhi, a founding Congress leader, rose to prominence through student politics. This has given him an advantage over the other candidates. Similarly, CPN-UML candidate Mahato, who was elected a proportional MP in 2017, defeated the then-LSP-N's Anil Jha in 2022. This time, however, CPN-UML central member Mahato's election campaign has not been seen in Dhanusha-3. While the competition in Dhanusha-3 has traditionally been between the Congress and the UML, RSP central spokesperson Manisha Jha's candidature has added to the excitement. Balen's influence after his Janakpurdham speech on January 19 has fuelled the competition between Dhanusha's new and old faces. The slogan 'Ab ki bar, Balen Sarkar', which means 'This time, Balen's government', is being used aggressively by RSP candidate Jha. RSP Jha is seen contacting voters at their doorsteps, whereas candidates from the Congress, UML, and Madhesi parties are perceived as having a lower voter turnout. The strategy of gaining votes by giving the prime minister of the Madhesi community's slogan to outgoing Mayor Balen Shah of Kathmandu Metropolitan City appears to have given Manish additional relief in Dhanusha-3. Dhanusha-3 voters appear eager to vote for Balen as Prime Minister and Manish as an MP. Manish's headache, however, is independent candidate Diwakar Sah is well-known for his unique style of journalism. The youth attraction to Sah, who hails from Saptari but contesting in Dhanusha-3, is enticing. Sah's candidature clearly concerns Manish. To overcome this, Manish appears to have adopted the practice of taking selfies with Dhanusha-3 residents while simultaneously raising the slogan 'Ab ki bar, Balen Sarkar', chatting with everyone, and sipping tea. The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML candidates, on the other hand, claim that they are familiar with Dhanusha-3 and do not need to seek votes by folding their hands. Nidhi's strategy of converting political heritage, experience with winning elections repeatedly, work as a minister, and the party's organisational power into election results is clear. However, voter expectations, the siege of a small number of cadres, Nidhi's style of remaining out of reach of the general public, and the party's internal conflicts may all pose challenges to his victory. Nidhi's behaviour, which makes it difficult to accept Gagan Thapa, who was elected president of the Congress through the special general convention, has not satisfied the cadres who support the special general convention. Nidhi, who was in Janakpur, did not attend President Thapa's January 30 meeting of 32 Madhes Province candidates to develop an internal strategy. Despite running on Gagan Thapa's ticket, this further demonstrates Nidhi's inability to accept the presidency. Whether Nidhi will attend the Nepali Congress's general meeting in Janakpur on February 19 is still up in the air. Nidhi's supporters are concerned that this could affect Dhanusha-3's outcomes. Ram Saroj Yadav, who is well-established in Dhanusha-3's rural areas, will also play a crucial part in Nidhi's triumph. Yadav appears to have grown apart from Nidhi, despite his recent closeness to Shekhar Koirala. Mahato, the CPN-UML candidate, is likewise still in the running. She claimed to have done a good job in this area as a minister, having won by a large margin in the previous election. Juli's victory could be based on the CPN-UML's organisational strength, as well as votes from women and Muslims. However, allegations of nepotism and statements made by CPN-UML President and Secretary Mahesh Basnet that have damaged Madhesis' self-esteem are coming after her. Dhanusha 3 consists of 38 wards, 17 of which are located in Janakpurdham Sub-metropolitan City. There are 17 wards in the sub-metropolitan city, 9 in Nagarain Municipality, 6 in Mukhiyapatti Musaharniya Rural Municipality, 5 in Dhanauji Rural Municipality, and one in Bideha Municipality. Out of the 17 wards in Janakpurdham, including the mayor and deputy mayor, the Nepali Congress has won 8, UML 5, and CPN (Maoist), JSP-N, and LSP-N, and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party one each. In Nagarain Municipality, the Nepali Congress won four wards, including the mayor, while the UML won four wards and the deputy mayor, and the LSP-N won one ward. In Dhanauji Rural Municipality, the Nepali Congress won four wards, as well as the chairman and vice-chairman, and the LSP-N won one, while the JSP-N won four wards, including the chair and vice-chair, and the Nepali Congress won two. With the merger of JSP-N, LSP-N, and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the current JSP-N will have eight wards, while the two independents in Janakpurdham have now voted for the Nepali Congress. In this situation, the Nepali Congress has control over 19 wards. In the previous election, the Nepali Congress received 25,195 proportional votes in Dhanusha-3, while the UML received 17,874 votes. Similarly, Janamat received 8,082 votes, JSP-N (then LSP) received 9,838 votes, Sangjiya Samajwadi Party Nepal gathered 1,486 votes, RPP got 1,331 votes, RSP bagged 1,219 votes, Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party received 1,211 votes, and CPN garnered 1,227 votes. Nidhi, the Nepali Congress candidate, has a chance to win in Dhanusha-3 only if he can hold onto his proportional votes. However, the outcome of the Dhanusha-3 election will undoubtedly depend on how Nidhi handles the allure of the RSP and Balen as well as Manish's combative campaigning. As per Mahaseth, both Nidhi and Manish stand a good chance this time.