This spring, most parts of India experienced a prolonged heatwave, with temperatures in some cities approaching 50°C. Meanwhile, Nepal's 2026 spring climbing season on Mount Everest set a record, with 1,008 climbers successfully reaching the summit. Thanks to a sustained period of favourable weather. These events took place in two different locations: one on the sweltering plains of South Asia, and the other atop the world's highest peak, where extreme cold prevails. Though they appear unrelated, both events raise the same question: what is driving these two diametrically opposed extremes to occur simultaneously? Attention is returning to El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon driven by an abnormal rise in sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. By disrupting atmospheric circulation, it alters rainfall pattens, temperatures, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the world. On June 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. 'El Nino, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this fall,' it said. Forecasters estimated a 63% probability of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0°C in the Nino-monitored region of the Pacific, indicating that it could be one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded. Current projections suggest it will persist at least into early 2027. Super El Niño events are rare with only three such events recorded in 2015-16, 1997-98, and 1982-83. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has said that a strong El Niño event would exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. According to NOAA, El Niño tends to be strongest during the winter months. A strong El Niño typically fuels hot, dry weather raising the chances of droughts and wildfires in different parts of Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia. It has also heightened the concerns about the potential risks in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. Some of the impacts are already visible. Summer monsoon rainfall across India and Southeast Asia has already declined under El Niño conditions, suggesting that this change is already underway. The HKH region sustains billions of people and supplies water to much of South Asia. It is the source of 10 major river systems that sustain nearly 1.9 billion people, a fourth of the world's population. Given the region's critical role in supporting water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods, any climatic phenomenon that disrupts precipitation and river flows can have far-reaching consequences. This makes El Niño a major concern for agriculture, livelihoods, and water security across the region. So, what might the next El Niño mean for us? According to Nepal Disaster Report 2024, an alarming 32,375 small and large-scale disaster incidents were reported from 2018 until 2024. The total value of economic losses incurred from disasters during the five-year reporting period accounted for Rs 23.60 billion. In terms of occurrences, climate-related disasters dominate the trends over the past five years, accounting for 91.2 percent (excluding animal incidents, boat capsizing, drowning, and 'others') of all 32,375 recorded incidents between mid-2018 until mid-2024. These statistics make us realise that climate-related disasters have a huge impact in economics in the mountainous countries. Thus, if El Niño with the same or high intensity occurs in the future, their social and economic impact will be far more severe than the ones that we are facing today. Therefore, it is important that the HKH region takes El Niño not only as a climate forecast but also as an early warning signal that tests the resilience of societies and the effectiveness of risk governance systems. As climate-related risks continue to rise in the HKH, the governments must respond with urgency. They should prioritise agriculture and integrate climate forecasts into decision-making for crop cultivation as drought in parts of Southeast Asia could hit crops. Governments should provide agricultural consultation services to local farmers, so that they could plan their planting and irrigation in advance and choose drought-resistant and heat-tolerant varieties based on climate forecasts. These measures will help reduce food shortages. Water resource management is equally crucial in the HKH region as climate-related risks has dual impacts on river flows, causing them to swell due to heavy rainfall and diminished flow during extended drought periods. Reduced river flow can disrupt water supplies while increased flow can lead to flooding. As many of the HKH's river basins are transboundary, the impacts of severe climatic events extend beyond individual countries. Addressing these shared risks require close regional cooperation. The past climatic conditions can no longer be a reliable source for predicting future risks to policymakers. With the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events such as El Niño, development planning and policymaking should account for growing climate risks rather than being based on normal climate conditions. Feng is a Young ICIMOD Professional (YIPP) and Dr. Zhang is Head of Climate and Environmental Risks at ICIMOD