Key Takeaways:

• UML (25 seats) and NCP (26 seats) have 51 seats, short of the 53 needed for majority
• Deputy Speaker Apsara Chapagain cannot normally vote unless there is a tie
• UML in talks with RPP (12 seats); Hamro Nepali Party (2 seats) also considered.
• NWPP (3 seats) has ruled out joining; alliance weighs deadline vs political deal.

HETAUDA, JULY 28 Despite an agreement to form a new government in Bagmati Province, the ruling alliance of the CPN-UML and the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is facing difficulties securing the required majority, raising the prospect of further delays in government formation. The two parties have agreed that the UML will lead the new provincial government. However, with 25 UML seats and 26 NCP seats, the alliance's combined strength of 51 seats falls short of the 53 votes needed in the 104-member provincial assembly. The situation is complicated by the role of UML lawmaker Apsara Chapagain, the deputy speaker currently performing the duties of speaker. While she may sign in support of government formation, she cannot normally vote in a confidence motion unless there is a tie, leaving the alliance effectively short of numbers. UML Parliamentary Party leader Jagannath Thapaliya said the party was holding talks with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) to bring it into the proposed government. The RPP holds 12 seats in the provincial assembly, making its support potentially decisive. However, the party has not yet confirmed whether it will join the new coalition. The UML and NCP are also considering bringing the two-member Hamro Nepali Party into the government. However, even with its support, the alliance may remain short of a majority if the deputy speaker is unable to vote. The Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP), which has three seats, could provide the alliance with a narrow majority. However, the party has made it clear that it does not intend to join the government. Former chief minister and NCP leader Shalikram Jamkattel has said his party is participating in the proposed government primarily to prevent the dissolution of the provincial assembly and ensure political stability. Under the Constitution, a chief minister has up to one month to secure a vote of confidence. Jamkattel said the alliance was considering whether to wait until the deadline or seek a political agreement that would allow the incumbent government to clear the way for a new administration. The current arithmetic follows the resignation of six provincial assembly members who contested the House of Representatives election in February. The resignations reduced the number of occupied seats from 110 to 104 and lowered the majority threshold to 53. With the UML-NCP alliance still short of a working majority, the participation or support of the RPP appears increasingly crucial to the formation of a new government in Bagmati.