Opinion

A Himalayan tsunami, and who will pay the bill?

By Dr. Ghana S. Gurung and Rajan Thapa

A resident looks at the swollen Trishuli river in Galchhi, Dhading District, Nepal, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026. Photo: AP

Nepal was climbing slowly, against the odds. The 2015 earthquake killed nearly nine thousand people and buried a decade of planning. We had been preparing to graduate from the least-developed-country status which had to be deferred but we rebuilt anyway: rising up the human development index, crossing the income threshold, and began to treat the middle-income status as a date on the calendar rather than a distant hope. Since then, that progress has been undone one disaster at a time. Melamchi and the Terai floods in 2021, the debris flows through Manang and Mustang in 2023, the GLOF in Thame and the flooding of Kathmandu in 2024, the flood in Rasuwa in 2025 and now, a Himalayan tsunami on August 26. Each time, the country counts its dead, rebuilds the bridge, and quietly revises its growth forecast downward. On the morning of August 26, the Bhotekoshi came down on Rasuwa without warning and without rain. It was a sunny morning with travelers starting their journeys, children starting their school days, workers starting their shifts in the hydropower plants and hoteliers feeding their guests. While the bustle of everyday life was starting, high above the border, in a valley no Nepali official monitors and no Nepali instrument watches, ice gave way, choked the Lhende river, and then let go. What reached Timure and Syabrubesi minutes later, at around at 9:20 am, was not a monsoon flood. It was a wall of water, ice, and rock, a Himalayan tsunami, a phrase we have not yet had the courage to use in an official document. What we lost, and what we cannot count The people come first; the death toll is above 1100- so far, and over 5000 people are missing. It will be long before the final numbers are known. The engineering damage is already legible. Power projects and related facilities along the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli corridors were hit, from Rasuwagadhi and Chilime to Upper Trishuli-1. By the Energy Ministry's own accounting, twelve operating plants with a combined 431.1 megawatts were taken off the national grid in a single morning, roughly a tenth of the country's generation capacity and more than 12 percent of its hydropower fleet, while a further 470 megawatts still under construction were damaged. Counted together, hydro and solar, some 748 megawatts of capacity were affected, and a 220 kV substation in Nuwakot went with it. We not only lost what we had built; we lost part of what we were counting on and along with the infrastructure, we lost hundreds of young bright minds working towards the country's future. The civil damage is of the same order. The Department of Roads reports that the entire 42-kilometer road from Betrawati to the Rasuwagadhi crossing has been destroyed at multiple points; more than 31 bridges are gone, and sections of the Pasang Lhamu Highway are closed. The customs office was destroyed outright. More than 300 vehicles queuing at the crossing were swept away, along with roughly 1,000 imported electric vehicles. At least twenty schools were damaged across Rasuwa, Nuwakot, and Dhading. Nearly four hundred foreign trekkers were out of contact on the Langtang and Gosaikunda routes, and the season that provides a year's worth of village income ended before it began. All of that can be tabulated and written into a post-disaster needs assessment. The rest cannot. There is no line item for a family that will not sleep through the sound of rain, no column for the child who watched a market street disappear, no coefficient for a community told twice in thirteen months that the mountain above it is no longer stable and that nobody upstream will call to warn them. We speak fluently about loss and damage; we remain almost illiterate about the non-economic half of it, the trauma, the displacement, the severed relationship between people and a river that has become a threat. That healing will take years and will appear in no budget line. Whose bill is this? Here is the arithmetic that should offend every Nepali. Our share of global greenhouse gas emissions is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Our contribution to the warming that destabilizes the ice above Rasuwa is effectively nil. Yet we are the ones paying, in bridges, megawatts, customs posts, trade routes, and lives. This is not a natural disaster in any honest sense. It is an imported one. The mechanism meant to address this was created at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Three decades on, that principle was reduced to a negotiating phrase. The Loss and Damage Fund exists, but it is capitalized at a level insufficient to rebuild a single mid-sized Himalayan district, let alone compensate one. Adaptation finance arrives late, arrives as loans, and arrives with conditions written by the very economies that caused the problem. Nepal is being asked to borrow money to survive someone else's emissions, and then to service that debt out of a development budget meant to carry us to middle-income status. Consider what that means here. Does it mean the award for making forest coverage of 46% of the total country land, or the award for protecting flora and fauna? Climate justice, as currently practiced, is a system in which the innocent takes on the debt while the responsible take credit for their pledges. What this flood did to our national targets This is where the loss stops being local. Nepal's entire development story now runs through clean energy. Our Nationally Determined Contribution, our net-zero-by-2045 pledge, our National Adaptation Plan, the goal of 28,500 MW by 2035, the transport electrification targets, the export ambitions, all of it assumes the water keeps coming, the turbines keep turning, and the transmission lines stay standing. Rasuwa has just demonstrated that the same crisis we intend to help solve with clean electricity can dismantle the infrastructure of that solution faster than we can build it. So let us ask the world. How does Nepal meet its NDC target when a single morning can remove a tenth of its installed capacity? How do we reach net zero while rebuilding the same assets every second monsoon, implement the NAP when adaptation money arrives after the disaster rather than before it, or honor our electric-vehicle commitments on a grid that keeps being amputated, all while paying for damage we did not cause out of our own thin revenues? Nepal cannot carry this cost alone. Saying so is not weakness; pretending otherwise is negligence. What must happen now? In 2009, we held a cabinet meeting at Kalapatthar, in the thin air below Everest, to force the mountains onto the global agenda ahead of Copenhagen. The images traveled the world. Since then, UN Secretaries-General have stood here and spoken about our glaciers, and Prime Ministers have raised climate justice from one podium after another. Witnessing such climate-induced disasters, one thing is clear: the vulnerability, intensity, and frequency of these incidents are likely to increase. The speeches are not the problem. The problem is that after seventeen years of speaking, we are still not getting the right answer to the only question that matters: Is anyone listening? There must be stability in taking leadership in climate discourse. Nepal has two immediate platforms and no excuse for wasting either of them. At the United Nations General Assembly and COP31, this country must arrive with a single consolidated national statement, not a lyrical passage about Himalayan beauty, but a costed, evidence-based claim. Name the two Bhotekoshi floods. Name the 431 megawatts lost and the capacity destroyed in construction. Name more than a thousand dead and the above five thousand missing. Name the severed trade corridor. Name the recurrent climatic events. Name Thame GLOF and name the coexistence of nature and people. Attribute the cause, and demand grant-based, non-debt-creating compensation from the loss and damage architecture, dedicated to the larger mountain issue. Nepal should be leading a bloc of mountain and cryosphere states, not petitioning alone. The moral position is unarguable; what has been missing is the discipline to press it. The Prime Minister and this young government have real political capital and a real willingness to spend it, which is why the demand should be higher, not lower: deliver the statement in person at both forums, with the technical file to back it up. The world will listen to a head of government from the mountains speaking with data in his hand; it has learned to ignore delegations that read generalities. At home, five things cannot wait. First, a standing national task force with a team of experts and practitioners on the mountain and transboundary hazard risk, empowered to monitor and direct rather than merely advise. Second, a functioning early warning agreement with neighboring countries, with automated upstream monitoring and data flowing in minutes, not memos. Third, mandatory GLOF, ice-avalanche and permafrost screening for every hydropower and road project in a glaciated basin; no such project should be built in sensitive areas. Fourth, enforceable evacuation and safety protocols for tunnel and powerhouse crews in hazard-exposed basins, with an independent inquiry into why some five hundred workers were underground when the water came. How long can we continue to learn the lessons? We must now focus on enforcing the learnings. Fifth, a published reconstruction plan with dates and named owners, coordinated with Rasuwa and Nuwakot local governments, backed by open rosters of contractors, laborers, technicians, and suppliers, and audited in public so that recovery funds reach the corridor rather than the capital. Sympathy expires; institutions do not. In 2009 we had the world's cameras at Kalapatthar and turned them into albums. We are being offered the same chance at an unbearable price, and we should not spend it on another photograph. The people of Rasuwa and Nuwakot are not asking for sympathy. They are asking who pays and when. Until we answer it, every Nepali flood will keep being described as an act of nature when it is in fact an act of policy- theirs, in the emissions, and ours, in the unpreparedness. We will rebuild the bridges and restart the turbines. We always do. But rebuilding is not the same as being made whole. If we rebuild without the world formally acknowledging Nepal's climate vulnerability, and without dedicated climate finance to match it, for a crisis we did not cause, that failure belongs to humanity. So let us be united and let us be loud: in Kathmandu, at the General Assembly, at COP31, and in every forum that will hold a microphone. We have grieved before, and we have rebuilt before. We will rise again. But this time we must rise with the bill in hand. The ice above us is not waiting for a communiqué. Neither should we. The authors are conservation and climate professionals who write on climate policy and development in Nepal. Opinions are personal and not attributed to WWF Nepal.