Rethinking disaster risk in Nepal: What will we do differently before the next natural hazard?
Natural hazards are inevitable. But we can influence where people live, where infrastructure is built, how rivers are managed, and how development is permitted in hazardous areas
Published: 11:26 am Sep 07, 2026
The recent catastrophic disaster in Nepal has once again confronted us with the extraordinary power and complexity of natural processes and extremes. The disaster is still unfolding, and its full human and economic consequences will take time to understand. Our immediate priority must be rescue, relief, and recovery. But once again, we must ask a more fundamental question: 'What will we do differently before the next disaster?' We have experienced hydrometeorological and geomorphological disasters for generations. We investigate them, identify their causes, collect data, publish articles, and hold discussions. Valuable knowledge and information are generated. But the uncomfortable question remains: What do we do with all this knowledge and information? If our findings do not influence where we build settlements, roads, hydropower plants, bridges, schools, and other infrastructure; if they do not influence land-use planning, development priorities, investment decisions; and if they do not strengthen preparedness, early warning, and community awareness, then we must question whether we are converting knowledge and information into action. Perhaps, we need to stop asking only 'What happened?' and start confronting the more fundamental question: 'Why did a natural hazard become a human disaster?' Natural hazards are inevitable; disasters are not. Our river basins are geologically young and fragile, tectonically active, and geomorphologically dynamic, creating a landscape in which natural hazards are inevitable. Hydro-geomorphological processes like floods, landslides, debris flows, landslide dam and glacial lake outburst floods, river erosion, and sedimentation are part of the natural processes. Climate variation is an additional factor and can alter the probability and magnitude of some hazards. But we should resist the temptation to attribute every disaster simply to 'climate change'. A scientifically credible assessment must distinguish between natural hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and human interventions that may amplify risk. We cannot prevent every landslide, flood, debris flow or glacier collapse, stop rivers from moving sediment, floodplains from inundating. But we can influence where people live, where infrastructure is built, how rivers are managed, and how development is permitted in hazardous areas. A natural event becomes a disaster when people, assets, infrastructure, and economic activities are exposed to it and are insufficiently prepared to withstand it. Yet our development planning often treats land as if it were stable and hazards as if they were exceptional events. Risk information, not just hazard assessment, must become a fundamental input for all development decisions. We have become increasingly capable of responding to disasters. But response, however necessary, cannot substitute for prevention and risk reduction. Early warning systems, real-time monitoring, and emergency communication are essential. But they must be accompanied by risk-sensitive development decisions, community preparedness and awareness. An early warning system cannot save a settlement that should never have been in a high-risk corridor. A stronger bridge cannot compensate for fundamentally wrong sitting, and a beautifully engineered infrastructure project cannot withstand a hazard that was never properly understood. True risk reduction means changing our baseline thinking. Development can no longer just ask, 'Can we build here?' It must first ask, 'Should we build here at all, and under what strict conditions?' 'Who will bear the cost when our assumptions fail?' The challenge before our country is not simply technological. It is institutional, political, and societal. We need a shift from 'How do we respond when disaster happens?' to 'How do we minimise natural hazards from becoming disasters?' We need to stop treating every disaster as an isolated event. We need to use science not merely to explain the past, but to guide decisions about the future. And we need to be honest about the limits of our knowledge. River basins should not be viewed merely as hydrological units. They are interconnected natural and socio-economic systems in which water, land, forests, biodiversity, infrastructure, settlements, agriculture, energy, and livelihoods interact. A decision taken upstream can create consequences hundreds of kilometres downstream. We therefore need strong, integrated, and participatory river basin authorities working across federal, provincial, and local boundaries. Such institutions should integrate water resources, river management, land-use planning, infrastructure development, environmental management, and disaster risk reduction. This is particularly important under federalism, because political boundaries do not coincide with river-basin boundaries. Without effective basin-level coordination, inter-provincial conflicts over resources, infrastructure development, hazard and risk will become increasingly difficult to manage. This does not necessarily mean creating another layer of bureaucracy. We already have central, provincial, and local departments, agencies, research and academic institutions, professional organisations, and communities with considerable expertise and experience. The priority should be to reorganise and connect existing institutional capacity around river basin authorities. Nepal is blessed with extraordinary natural resources and landscapes, but these same landscapes also carry extraordinary risks. Sustainable development therefore cannot mean simply extracting more resources or building more infrastructure. It must mean understanding the natural system, working with it, and respecting its limits. The question is whether we have the willingness and wisdom to reduce unnecessary exposure, the science to understand our natural systems, strong institutions to manage risk, and the political will to act before tragedy forces us to act. We do not lack knowledge, experience, or technology. We lack the discipline and determination to utilise them and act. Dr. Giri specialises in river basin management while Dr. Kayastha is a hydrologist and water resource specialist