Opinion

Early warning to early action: Nepal's next step in disaster preparedness

By Rajesh Dhungel

When a potential cyclone brews in the Bay of Bengal, the primary source of over 80 percent annual rainfall in Nepal, the fragile landscape hit by 'himalayan tsunami' less than a month ago awaits confirmation for the cyclone that got its name, 'Arnab' before existence. Nepal has spent two decades building one of the region's most impressive networks of river gauges, automated weather stations, and early warning communications. We have made tremendous progress in the weather forecast. However, our recent action was another reminder of real capacity to manage disaster risks. With the past investment in technologies, forecast information is increasingly available, warnings are disseminated rapidly, and authorities are conscious of the need to alert communities. Yet, as the disaster strikes, a familiar paralysis sets in. Municipalities wait for a federal government decision for damage assessment, knowing that it's a pre-requisite for releasing emergency funds. Province governments are yet to sufficiently exercise legislative mandate for disaster risk management. Farmers watch ripe crops submerge while waiting for subsidized compensation only available after losing multiple cropping seasons. Rescuers wait for emergency declarations before deploying equipment. We have mastered the science of knowing what is coming. Nevertheless, we remain utterly trapped in the bureaucracy of waiting for the disaster to strike and for top-down decisions. National Anticipatory Action Framework, 2026 provides the foundation for the challenge in addressing the missing link with the decision protocol connecting information to resources and action. One of the biggest barriers to anticipatory action is not necessarily technology and information, it is the ability to spend money before damage occurs and bridging the gap between siren to shovel. For generations, emergency response in the developing world has operated on a simple, post-fact logic: 'No loss, no funds'. Traditional disaster governance treats disaster spending as an act of recovery rather than protection. To spend public money, a government typically needs proof of devastation. Spending money before a bridge collapses to reinforce its abutments or evacuate nearby households feels risky and remains indecisive due to the fear that if the forecast fails, the expenditure is branded a waste; if it works, the expenditure is swallowed by the catastrophe. Such a dilemma, turns local officials into passive spectators even until the 72- hour golden period. We have turned early warnings into spectator sports, where municipal leaders receive alerts and then sit down to deliberate on what to do from scratch, and the vulnerable people follow the crowd without knowing the safe heavens. Early action should complement early warning. This is not about creating another institution or another emergency plan but effectively mobilizing existing systems, and putting anticipatory action framework into action. A pragmatic approach would begin with high-impact and forecastable hazards such as extreme rainfall, river flooding and heatwaves, while progressively incorporating landslides and seismic risk mitigation measures into practice. The next generation of preparedness requires pre-agreed triggers, clearly assigned responsibilities, small flexible financing mechanisms, local risk information and rehearsed actions. Lead humanitarian agencies have already tested without much needed upscaling across all levels. When the crisis knocks on the door, everyone becomes a humanitarian responder, so, it is imperative for all to replicate and transfer knowledge. The basic principle is straightforward: when a forecast reaches an agreed level of confidence and severity, these actions should automatically begin, any delay should be unthinkable. If Nepal is to set an example in proactive disaster governance, it must execute five immediate structural shifts: Decentralize the money box: Establish pre-authorized, flexible 'Early Action Windows' within municipal funds. A ward chairman should have the instant financial authority to buy fuel for evacuation logistics, hire tractors for early harvests, stockpile relief materials, and authorized credit purchase from pre-identified local vendors. Shift from administrative boundaries to hotspot: Generic alerts and colorful bulletins that say 'Very heavy to heavy rain expected in Bagmati Province' only makes sense to most vulnerable people if the weather models overlay with local terrain data to pinpoint the precise section of the road, vulnerable bridges, and villages most at risk. Institutionalize drills: Measure disaster preparedness by response speed, not procedural documentation. Every six months, municipalities should run clock-timed simulations: give every large employer a fake alert and measure how many minutes it takes to evacuate all staff to the pre-determined safe place on their own. Check how long it takes for the local government to unlock funds, notify ward reps, and verify evacuation sites. Allow 'No-Regrets' spending: Accept that forecasting is probabilistic, investing now to prevent bigger losses later should justify even if disaster doesn't happen. If a municipality spends a pre-authorised catastrophic fund to move vulnerable families and the forecast goes wrong, that is not a financial loss or an audit failure; rather it is a drill to build muscle memory that is far more effective than days of in-house training. Agriculture deserves much greater attention: A forecast is not only a humanitarian concern. It can represent significant economic loss for farmers. This is particularly important because a farmer does not just face the threat of physical harm; they face total financial ruin. A field of unharvested crops transforms a family from self-sufficient producers into recipients of relief. If the same farmer is provided with a lead time, access to a community grain store, or livestock shelters, insurance support for compensating loss, the economic loss drops precipitously and the humanitarian phase shortens. The success of disaster preparedness should ultimately be measured not by how many warnings were issued, but by how much risk was reduced before the hazard became a disaster. Now, the true test of national resilience is whether that warning can move a bureaucrat's pen, release a municipality's budget, and mobilize a community before the mud starts to slide. The future of disaster risk management in the Himalayas will not be measured by how well we predict the rain, how many strategies and plans are in the shelves, but by what we do in the hours before it falls. Dhungel is a disaster risk management and humanitarian response professional