Opinion

BLOG SURF: Global productivity

BLOG SURF: Global productivity

By Donghyun Park

Analysis of historical data suggests that the current stagnation is far from unprecedented. There were clusters of TFP slumps in the early 1970s as well as in the late 1980s to early 1990s, both likely triggered by global oil shocks. There was a third cluster in the second half of the 1990s in the run-up to the Asian crisis, and a final one in the mid-2000s, just prior to the global financial crisis. The fact many of these episodes are grouped at particular points in time suggests a possible role of global factors in TFP growth slowdowns. TFP slumps have been observed in low-, middle- and high-income countries alike. Evidently, no country and no period of time are immune from the risk of productivity slumps. Within individual countries, several factors emerge time and again during TFP crashes; low education levels, unstable political systems and unusually high investment rates are the most prominent.