Manila, October 22:

Bird flu could cause economic losses of at least $90 billion in the Asia-Pacific region if it erupts into a human pandemic that would kill millions of people, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said today.

“As demonstrated by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis in 2003, the present outbreak may evolve and have a devastating effect,” the Manila-based bank said in a statement. The ADB said current bank estimates showed that ‘a relatively mild pandemic’ could cost Asia and the Pacific around $90 billion to $110 billion due to the effects of reduced consumption, investment and trade.

“The loss of workers due to death and incapacity could cost an additional $15 billion,” it said, “A more severe outbreak would likely lead to a global recession, costing the region $250 billion to $290 billion in the short run. Many economic activities would be brought to a halt, while the health systems of most countries would be overwhelmed.”

Noting that prevention was key to fighting the threat of the potentially deadly H5N1 virus, the ADB said it was planning grants worth $58 million to help stem the spread of the disease before it grows into a human pandemic.

One of the grant projects, worth $30 million, has already been prepared for consideration by ADB’s board of directors in November. It aims to improve controls for various endemic and emerging communicable diseases in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

Another $28 million grant project to specifically address avian influenza would be prepared in close coordination with such agencies as the World Health Organisation (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health.

That project would aim to support countries in controlling and managing existing outbreaks of bird flu, prepare them to effectively cope with a potential human pandemic and strengthen regional cooperation, the ADB said.

“It is critical that prevention activities are undertaken in a coordinated manner since epidemics such as this one do not respect national boundaries,” said Jacques Jeugmans, an ADB health specialist, “It is also important to share information about outbreaks to ensure an effective and quick response. If we want to contain the avian flu epidemic and prevent a pandemic, we need to work with local communities, where farmers who observe their chickens dying, are on the frontline, but also most at risk.”

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people, mostly in Thailand and Vietnam, since 2003. Almost 140 million domestic birds have also either died or been destroyed, ravaging poultry industries in the affected countries.