Kathmandu, January 5:

Provocative remarks made by senior government officials and logistical problems dogging the Maoist cadres might have caused the latter to terminate the unilateral truce, says military expert Dr Indrajit Rai.

According to Dr Rai and another military expert, Dr Karna Bahadur Thapa, the Maoist-announced “unilateral ceasefire was strategic”, and its termination is aimed at “disrupting the municipal polls.”

Following the termination of the ceasefire and the resumption of attacks on government buildings and security forces, security units have been told to remain on high alert.

“We have received instructions to keep the troops on extra-red-high-alert,” a company commander based in the far-west told this daily over telephone today.

According to him, the central command of the Army has ordered the local commanders to “re-energise” their units, anticipating that the “troops might have been a bit tired.”

Even though the government did not take the Maoist ceasefire seriously, the troops were “a bit relaxed”. “Time has come to pull our socks, and become fully conscious,” said an RNA officer based in Kathmandu.

Officers cite the resumption of attacks by Maoists as indications that more “attacks on infrastructure, banks and security installations” are likely.

On the other hand, security analysts say the Maoists will attack VIPs and also plant bombs in public places.”

Dr Rai and Dr Thapa believe the Maoists are least likely to launch attacks on large security installations as the RNA now has an improved defence system in place. They said the Maoists will choose individual targets.

“RNA is well-informed, while the Maoists’ propaganda cell has become weaker. As RNA barracks have been fortified well, the Maoists may not launch big attacks. Rather, they may issue death-threats to individuals,” said Dr Thapa.

“The Maoists used the ceasefire for recruitment and re-strengthening of their organisation,” says Dr Rai. An RNA brigade commander says the Maoists will attack banks in coming days. “Army’s intelligence has improved. No new suspect can operate in the Valley keeping their base in the Valley itself. We hear that the Maoists are operating their Special Task Force from outside.”