An escalating feud between China and Taiwan is threatening the fragile status quo in a year fraught with political possibilities that have kept the archrivals firmly on collision course. The Chinese communist party, which lost the island to the Nationalist Kuomintang party in a civil war more than 50 years ago, is preparing for its all important congress in the fall that will outline the country’s blueprint for the next five years and reshuffle its political hierarchy. The goal of reunification with Taiwan, which Beijing leaders regard as a renegade province, remains high on the agenda. In Taipei, President Chen Shui-bian is trying to drum up support for his pro-independence Democratic Progressive party before legislative elections at the end of the year. Chen — embattled by a series of corruption scandals at home and nearing the end of his presidential term — is trying to burnish his legacy by accelerating his drive towards formal independence from China.

“Taiwan is a country whose sovereignty lies outside the People’s Republic of China,” Chen told a pro-independence group last weekend as Chinese communist rulers in Beijing were convening their annual session of parliament. “Taiwan wants independence, wants name rectification, wants a new constitution, and wants development,” Chen said, refuting his inaugural “four nos” pledge in 2000, one of which was not to seek formal independence. The following day, responding to what it saw as intended provocation, Beijing fired its own verbal shots. “Whoever wants independence will become a criminal in history,” foreign minister Li Zhaoxing told reporters.

But Taiwan did not back off. Adding muscle to the President’s strident calls for independence was the announcement of a missile test, capable of striking Shanghai or Hong Kong. While the test occurred in February, it became public knowledge this week when reported by Taiwan’s United Daily News. Chen attended the launch of the Hsuifeng (Brave Wind) 2E missiles, the report said. Taiwan’s military strategy is fundamentally defensive and relies on support from the US which has pledged to help in the island’s defence. But reports from Taipei last year said that some of Chen’s advisers had pushed for a shift to a more offensive stance based on cruise missiles.

China’s own military build-up is cited as the reason for the proposed shift. What worries Taiwan in particular is the rapidly increasing number of mainland missiles aimed at the island. In January, Taipei said it believed that their number stood at 900. The news of Taiwan’s missile launch emerged as Beijing announced that its military spending was to rise by 18 per cent — the highest such increase in the past decade, and greater than the budget as a whole. Beijing has made no secret of its plans to modernise the country’s huge but often poorly equipped military force of more than two million so that it can extend its strategic reach and maintain pressure on Taiwan.

On its part, Taiwan has introduced new versions of history textbooks that emphasise Taiwan’s separate identity. In addition, some of the island’s largest state-owned bodies have been renamed to substitute ‘Taiwan’ for ‘China’. Last week, the Chinese Petroleum Corporation became CPC, Taiwan, while China Post Company became Taiwan Post Company. — IPS