Thailand’s political temperature may rise further after May 30 when a special tribunal determines the fate of the country’s oldest and largest political parties. The prospect of the Democrat party and the Thai Rak Thai (TRT-Thais Love Thai) party being banned for five years, along with their respective executive committees, has fuelled concern about violent protests and further fragmentation of an already polarised country. The 61-year old Democrat party has an estimated four million members, while the TRT, formed nine years ago, has over 14 million members.

“The worst case is if we are banned from politics for five years,” Chaturon Chaisang, acting leader of the TRT, told a group of foreign correspondents. “It will be a difficult situation because most of the leading politicians are in the executive committee.” “Politically, I think it is a bad idea to dissolve either party,” added Abhisit Vejajiva, leader of the Democrat party, during an encounter with journalists. “Because you will be depriving people of choice.”

The scale of worry about the unchartered times that lie ahead was brought into relief on Thursday night by the country’s venerated monarch.

In a speech delivered to judges of the Administrative Court, King Bhumibol Adulyadej said that next Wednesday’s judgement will be a “highly important decision” and that “there will be political trouble whether political parties remain or not.”

“The timing of the king’s comments and the wording of his speech underlines how crucial the verdict is for what happens next,” Laurent Malespine, who runs ‘Don’t Blink’, a Bangkok-based political research consultancy, said. “People are worried about what will happen after the judgement and many will agree with the king’s warning about the negative consequences that can follow the verdict.”

In April last year, the king called on the judiciary to end the “mess” the country was in as a judgement before the Constitutional Court loomed in May. The case was to determine the validity of a controversial parliamentary poll on April 2, which the opposition parties, such as the Democrats, boycotted and was won convincingly by the TRT, which ran the government at the time.

The judgement due May 30 is rooted in those cases of fraud linked to the April 2 poll. But it will be a new bench of judges that will deliver the verdict. They are members of the constitutional tribunal, a special court formed by the junta after the coup, yet one whose legitimacy as a legal body is being questioned. It comes as Thailand’s political troubles have mounted, with divisions in the country outnumbering those that prevailed when the first judicial verdict against the April poll was delivered last May.

As political tension edges towards boiling point, rumours of a coup have emerged. During last year’s crisis whispers of a coup began in July, three months ahead of the eventual putsch.

This country has witnessed 18 coups since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932. “I’m worried that some of the younger military officers may take action,” says Kiatichai Pongpanich, senior editor of the Thai language Khaosod Daily, despite the government leaders saying over television and radio stations over the past week that another coup is unlikely. — IPS