The skyline of the country was dominated by flowers and fragrance till recently during the spring. But with the departure of spring and the emergence of the rainy season, it has become a different story now. The flowers are slowly fading, and the aroma also is vanishing fast. In their places dark clouds, sporadic rain, lightning and thunder, which are characteristic of the pre-monsoon period, have taken over.

The rainy season in Nepal manifests in three stages – pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. Whilst the pre-monsoon lasts from March to the end of May, the monsoon takes over from mid-June and continues till the third week of September. The post-monsoon then takes over and lurks around till the end of October.

The pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rains account for 14, 78, 5 and 3 per cent, respectively, of the country's total precipitation. As things stand now, the monsoon appears to enter Nepal by the first week of June this year, a week earlier than usual.

Due to the pre-monsoon exceeding its quota this year, the soil has been wet considerably with the possibility of a spurt in landslide and flood incidents. This is more so with the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM) predicting a probability of 35 to 65 per cent more rain this year. The temperature is also likely to surge considerably.

The increase in the temperature will also trigger glacial lake outburst floods. Not identical but a similar phenomenon known as Thermokarst has already been witnessed in the Tilgaon, Humla flood and landslide of May 15. Senior citizens tirelessly speak of the back-to-back rain in the years 1953 and 1954, and it appears that history may repeat itself this year as well.

What will happen if it so happens? Last year, the number of deaths mounted to a high of 495 people, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, which is the custodian of disaster risk reduction in the country by its very name and mandate. More than half of them, 250 people, were killed in the September 26 floods that continued for three days.

Last year too, the government had issued an appeal saying that the rainfall was going to be more than average. But then it took a nap instead of ensuring that people did not travel in such an adverse situation, with the result that buses tumbled into the Jhyaple River of Dhading district in September end, leading to the demise of 35 people.

This year is likely to be worse in view of the DoHM's forecast as there is no might which can stop the rains from falling. It is said that King Canute who reigned over Norway, Denmark and England in the early 11th century, a contemporary of King Laxmikama Dev in Nepal, tried to do so but failed miserably. He had ordered the tide to halt in order not to wet his shoes and robes after he had set his throne on the seashore but in vain.

Even if our trinity of leaders, Sher Bahadur Deuba, K P Oli and Prachanda, command the rain to stop accordingly in the sky itself, it is going to descend on the earth and cause landslides and floods this year as well. This is likely to be more due to a higher pre-monsoon coupled with higher monsoon rains.

It is impossible to stop the rains from falling, but it is certainly possible to store them for some time in the hills and mountains before they manifest themselves in the form of floods and landslides. This can be achieved through the age-old practice of digging ponds right from the highlands, crossing through the midlands over to the lowlands on both sides of the gullies.

As can be seen in the Kathmandu Valley and Janakpur, many ponds were constructed of varying sizes in the past. The ponds deter floods from occurring as they bring the gushing rainwater to rest by storing it. They were also used to feed water to the stone spouts as can be seen in the valley.

It is in this context that 171 ponds were constructed by this columnist with support of the Rotary Club of Thamel and Nepal Academy of Science and Technology in Mahottari and Khotang, respectively. In this respect, one manual has also been prepared, which can still be found on the website of DPnet, a network of disaster preparedness in Nepal. Unfortunately, the government turned a deaf ear to it with the result that many of these ponds have been disappearing after being filled up by the incoming sediments every year.

Landslides also can be prevented by following the age-old tradition of Bhal Katne and Chapari Purne technique, which is known as drainage and cracks filling in the contemporary disaster risk reduction English vocabulary. In fact, it was promoted by DPnet and executed in Shiranchok Rural Municipality of Gorkha district.

Due to the failure to execute such and other cost-effective indigenous techniques, the preparedness has been virtually nil for floods as well as landslides. So, the government has been like that mediocre student who does not prepare for the examination and fails miserably one after another in the regular and the back paper examinations.

The monsoon in the country has fluctuated between a blessing and a curse if we peep into the past. It is likely to be a curse if the DoHM prediction comes to be true this year again. Mother nature has already indicated towards such a scenario in this year's early May flood in Panauti, which swept the road under construction that was damaged by the previous flood and landslide. But not all the forecasts come true. So, whether this year's monsoon is going to be a bane or boon depends upon the average or the excessive rain likely to fall during this year's rainy season.