The diagnostic season: Climate as a tool for state accountability
Leaving no one behind must become a practice rather than a promise. Every single life matters. Their deaths cannot be dismissed as natural disasters or cultural inevitabilities
Published: 11:46 am Dec 30, 2025
Nepal tracks deaths from weather through National Adaptation Plans (NAP) that map every risk and vulnerable area. Disaster protocols pledge no one is left behind when seasons turn deadly. In far-western high-altitude districts, extreme weather plays a role beyond creating risks; it exposes existing ones that persist invisibly under ordinary conditions. Functioning as a diagnostic tool, extreme weather reveals what the state has overlooked: deaths clustered in seasonal windows. It punctures symbolic legal progress, forcing into prominence human realities overlooked by institutions and long-overdue transparency upon systems conflating legislation with protection, laying bare systemic failures our legal and policy frameworks have failed to address. Seasonal mortality patterns make this exposure undeniable. From 2018 to 2025, clusters of deaths in Bajura, Achham, Doti, Baitadi, and Kanchanpur recur during the winter months December to February and monsoon June to September, revealing a grim meteorological regularity. These are not random weather casualties but deaths in chhaugoths, the menstrual huts condemned by law where chhaupadi confines women and girls. This practice was banned by the Supreme Court in 2005 and criminalised under Muluki Criminal Code 2017 imposing penalties of three months of imprisonment, Rs 3,000 fine, or both, effective August 2018. Seven years later, predictable pattern proves a juridical vacuum. Climate is not the primary killer here – it merely proves these structures exist. While official reports claim success, the weather casualties become the de facto census proving the de jure ban failed. This is the unmasking power of climate. Mild weather might hide the symbolic nature of our laws for decades, but extreme seasons refuse to participate in this lie, laying bare the State's dual failure to protect women and girls through both its legal and climate systems. On one side stands criminal law. Chhaupadi is illegal and penalties exist. The assumption is criminalisation creates deterrence and legal prohibition translates to elimination, yet reality tells another story. Three thousand rupees for a practice that routinely proves fatal conveys judicial apathy. Enforcement functions largely reactively, activating only after tragedy occurs rather than preventing women from entering these structures. Police cite absence of complaints to justify inaction. Prosecutions remain rare. Law functions primarily as documentation, not protection. Women are abandoned by the justice system that criminalised their exile but fails to prevent it. On the other side stands climate adaptation planning. NAP identifies vulnerable populations and map high-risk areas for disaster response. But NAP and Early Warning Systems (EWS) remain blind to menstrual sheds. They operate under the assumption these illegal structures no longer exist. Disaster preparedness protocols do not include specific directives against menstrual sheds during extreme weather warnings. Women are abandoned by the adaptation framework that could protect them during predictable danger periods but does not, because planning assumes law has eliminated what law merely criminalised. Between criminal law and climate planning lies a fatal gap. The justice system assumes prohibition completes its mandate. Climate adaptation assumes illegality removes structures from planning purview. Each system defers to the other; neither accepts responsibility. This double abandonment leaves women in chhaugoths completely vulnerable. Both systems fail, creating institutional void where accountability vanishes behind bureaucratic assumptions and administrative fictions. Yet this exposure provides opportunity. Climate offers Nepal a lens to see what remained obscured. While Chhaupadi persists quietly throughout the year, extreme weather exposes it and its deadly consequences that otherwise remain hidden. The seasonal clustering of deaths reveals precisely when danger intensifies, where it concentrates, and who faces it. This is not vague vulnerability but specific, predictable, documented reality demanding urgent intervention. The pattern is consistent, identifiable, and preventable. Institutions must choose to respond. This exposure reveals intersecting system failures where Sustainable Development Goals on climate, gender, and health operate in disconnected silos. By ignoring suffering outside narrow documentation windows, state mechanisms selectively define which lives count within their limited frameworks. Leaving no one behind must become a practice rather than a promise. Every single life matters. Their deaths cannot be dismissed as natural disasters or cultural inevitabilities. Their deaths are predictable, thus preventable. Climate has exposed a real threat that demands attention now, not incremental reforms or awareness campaigns. In 2017, UN Women emphasised legislation alone cannot end Chhaupadi. In February 2025, seventeen years after the Supreme Court directive and seven years after criminalisation, international attention returned during Nepal's CEDAW review in Geneva. Within five months of this international dialogue, the next monsoon claimed three more lives in sheds. Accountability must become immediate and concrete. Justice system must enforce law with seriousness matching harm gravity. Deaths in menstrual huts must be treated as culpable homicide or manslaughter. Preventative monitoring must begin before winter and monsoon arrives and throughout. Climate adaptation planning must accept illegality has not erased these structures. Despite being illegal, adaptation measures must map Chhaupadi persistence areas. Early warning directives should prohibit menstrual hut confinement during extreme weather. Proactive inspections, evacuation, and enforcement must be mandated during high-risk periods. Climate science reveals danger timing, mortality records identify locations, social data shows who suffers most, and seasonal patterns demand intervention timing. Missing is institutional collaboration. Climate action, gender equality, health systems must unite across silos to connect findings into protection. The elimination of suffering in these illegal structures depends on institutional will.