Aditya Man Shrestha

Polarisation is the latest edition of Nepali politics. The international community advocated and lobbied for reconciliation, initially, between the palace and the political parties and, then, negotiations with the Maoists. It turned out to be just wishful thinking, as there was no icebreaking, let alone a breakthrough, between the so-called constitutional forces. The palace has a set agenda and that is nothing less than restoration of supremacy of the monarchy in the new restructuring of the state. Monarchy has emerged, as predicted (THT, March 2, 2004), as the national superpower, with the blessings of certain regional and global powers. The state is in the process of making, despite obstreperous protests from internal and external forces, the de facto establishment de jure.

Political observers anticipate that the authoritarian trend would lead to direct confrontation between the royalists and combined anti-royalist elements in Nepal and create an explosive situation to the detriment of the monarchy. In my view, that is a misunderstanding of our national character and antecedents. A look back at our history is a pointer to an implosion rather than an explosion in the power centres.

The foremost victim of an implosion was none other than a century-old Rana reg-ime. Many historians believe that had the Ranas not been divided into A, B, C classes, they would not have collapsed as early as they did. The internal fissures in the Rana clan were considered stronger factors than external pressures of armed revolution and democratic aspirations of the people that proved destructive to their hold on power.

Did not the Nepali Congress (NC), the next powerful claimant to power, perish from similar implosions within itself? The division between two brothers, B P Koirala and M P Koirala in the 50s had frittered away party energy, depriving NC of its legitimate ascendancy to power. Even when it did come to power by popular support in 1959, it could not hold it long again due to yet another implosive element headed by none other than Tulsi Giri and his ilk.

This belief has held all the more since 1990. The people voted NC to power with absolute majority but it failed to stay there simply because of implosion caused by the dissident group of 36 headed by Chiranjibi Wagle. In 1999 election, the party gained absolute majority despite its pitfalls but, again, the party got into trouble not from external enemies but from its own members. It was split into two factions that still continue to exist as NC and NC (Democratic). Whether G P Koirala is to be blamed for it or Sher Bahadur Deuba is of little consequence. What comes as a truth is that the most powerful political force ruined itself by an internal conflict.

This conviction gets further reinforced by what befell the CPN-UML. After emerging as the single largest party in the 1995 parliament, it was well poised to win an absolute majority in the 1999 poll. It could not because it was split into two equally strong factions, one led by Madhav Kumar Nepal and another by Bamdev Gautam. It was corroborated by the results of the 1999 poll in which the CPN-UML lost its stronghold constituencies due to diversion of ballots by its rival CPM-ML. Thus the CPN-UML, though united in a later stage, had to blame itself for failing to avert the implosion at a time when it was on the verge of capturing power by popular support.

Does this implosion factor not apply to the RPP uniting, disuniting and again uniting time and again? In fact, it does. This party was able after 1990 to get two of its leaders Lokendra Bahadur Chand and Surya Bahadur Thapa elected once as prime minister and selected once by the King in the same position. But it has lost its grit for the same reason of implosion. A splinter group of the RPP has already given birth to a new party headed by S B Thapa. RPP president Pashupati SJB Rana is still struggling to hold together what is left now in the party. Even the King had to reportedly intervene to prevent it from further divisions. The personal royal interest in keeping the RPP intact should have provided the party a legitimate claim to power under the royal dispensation. But it seems to have lost the opportunity not because of any lack of royal favour but the lack of its own internal unity.

The same is true with the Nepal Sadbhavana Party that bifurcated following the death of Gajendra Narayan Singh. At a time when the Madhise community had to demonstrate its political strength and assert it in the volatile situation, it has weakened itself by internal divisions.

The implosion virus has not left even the Maoists alone. The leadership problem between Prachanda and Baburam at the height of Maoist upsurge may mean a serious setback to the movement. Although the divide is said to have been now patched up, it might re-implode in the growing delicate situation of the war. If all political power centres suffer from the implosion factors, can the royal establishment remain unaffected by a similar internal conflict?

Shrestha is a freelance journalist