Brussels, September 19

The greatest influx of people into Europe in decades is not just a humanitarian emergency, but also a potential stroke of luck for many countries facing the economic threat of an ageing population.

A plunge in birth rates means there will be a dearth of European workers in coming years to support the growing number of retirees. So the arrival of thousands of young — and often well-educated — potential workers stands to boost the long-term economic prospects of the region.

The key is how well they are integrated and how many jobs European countries can offer.

Germany, among the most vocal in welcoming refugees, is also conveniently the country that stands to gain most quickly, as it has a strong labour market with lots of vacancies. By contrast, weaker economies like Greece and Italy will take years to see positive effects as they struggle to create jobs — though they too face threat of a demographic time bomb.

“Let us not forget, we are an ageing continent in demographic decline,” President of EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said last month in a speech. “We will be needing talent.”

Before the influx of people began this year, the German statistics office said it expected the country’s population, now 80.8 million, to shrink by a 10th or more by 2060. Germany forecasts its workforce will drop by six million in the next 15 years.

Welcoming an estimated 800,000 people from Syria, Iraq and other countries this year will cost Germany about six billion euros next year in welfare support and language training.

But such upfront costs may be recouped through higher economic growth. Andreas Rees, economist at UniCredit bank, estimates that the flood of new arrivals over the next few years could grow Germany’s economy by an extra 1.7 per cent by 2020.

Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche, whose German company makes Mercedes-Benz cars and trucks, made the case this week: “To take into Germany more than 800,000 people who need our help is without a doubt a Herculean task, but in the best case, it can also be the basis for the next German economic miracle.”

Sweden, which last year received 80,000 asylum seekers, second highest in the EU behind Germany, also views the newcomers as a net gain, though up-front costs may be stiff. “Because we have an ageing population,” Kristina Persson, minister for Nordic cooperation, said, “We have to replace those who leave the labour market.”

That may not be so easy in other countries. Greece, which is the first EU country of arrival for many people travelling from the Middle East, has an unemployment rate near 25 per cent, with about half of young people out of work. It is expected to take a generation to turn the economy around.

And the new arrivals know it, preferring to move on to try to reach Germany and the richer countries of Northern Europe.

Ironically, some of the countries in Europe that are most threatened by a drop in birth rates are working the hardest to keep newcomers out.

Hungary is one such case. It is sealing its borders with barbed wire and firing tear gas and water cannons to keep migrants away.

In Poland, a shift to smaller-size families years ago means fewer workers now support each retiree, a trend expected to worsen dramatically over the next two decades. So far, Poland has agreed to accept 2,000 refugees. It is considering increasing the number slightly, but has rejected an EU request that it take 12,000.