OECD area shakes off recession with fragile rebound
PARIS: Top industrialised economies broke free of recession in the third quarter despite falling output in Britain, OECD data showed Monday, but the IMF warned that the recovery was "vulnerable" and markets sent a similar message.
Data released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development echoed a lengthier OECD analysis last week that said the rebound would be modest at best, with with governments now forced to wind down huge, debt-aggravating rescue spending.
Global stock markets meanwhile rose sharply on Monday as the price of gold soared to a record high point, with dealers taking advantage of a weak dollar to move back into the precious metal's "safe haven."
Markets for several weeks have been sending such signals that reflect anxiety about the health of the recovery.
The 30 OECD economies showed growth of 0.8 percent from output in the second quarter when they had scarcely touched the end of recession with zero growth.
The report found that overall in six of the Group of Seven countries, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, gross domestic product expanded 0.7 percent from the second quarter, when zero growth was recorded.
There was no official estimate available for the third quarter in Canada, which is also a member of the Group of Seven.
The OECD said that among the six leading industrialised states there was wide variation in third quarter performances, ranging from growth of 1.2 percent in Japan to a 0.4-percent contraction in Britain.
For Britain, although the situation was improving, the data marked the sixth quarter running of contraction quarter by quarter.
The US economy, after shrinking 0.2 percent in the second quarter, expanded 0.9 percent in the July to September period.
The eurozone showed third-quarter growth of 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent shrinkage in the second, according to the OECD.
A leading eurozone indicator measuring private sector business activity grew in November at the fastest rate for two years but sent signs that growth may be "peaking".
Despite the brightening outlook, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn cautioned on Monday that the world economy remained "highly vulnerable."
He told the annual meeting of the Confederation of British Industry: "We can say that the recovery has started but everyone understand that it is very fragile and still dependent on policy support."
He said: "The financial conditions have improved but are still far from normal."
A measure of the fragility Strauss-Kahn referred emerged last week in the United States, where the stock market was chilled by data showing a 10.6-percent slide in housing starts in October and a decline of 4.0 percent in permits to build new homes.
Global stock markets rebounded on Monday as the dollar weakened further, sparking a fresh record on the gold market where the price per ounce jumped to a 1,167.88 dollars.
A weakening US unit makes gold, which is priced in dollars, attractive to holders of stronger currencies.
Wall Street stocks have undergone a huge, 60-percent rally since March that some analysts anxiously attribute to the availability of easy money from the US Federal Reserve's near-zero interest rates.
That policy, according to some economists, has ignited a massive "carry trade" in which investors borrow at low rates to invest in riskier assets including stocks, commodities and bonds of other countries.
Although the Fed has shown no inclination to lift rates, the weak dollar has prompted growing complaints from around the world about a potential speculative bubble.
Fred Dickson at DA Davidson said that "global concerns continue to rise about an emerging global asset bubble fueled primarily by the US Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy."
He said that officials in India, South Korea and Indonesia were considering policy moves "to limit the flow of hot speculative money into their stock and real estate markets."
On Britain, which has been unable to share in the recovery enjoyed by several of its European Union partners, the OECD last week urged the British government to outline plans to nurse its finances back to health.
"By developing and announcing more ambitious fiscal consolidation plans early and supporting them with a strong and credible medium-term fiscal framework, the government would strengthen the recovery," the OECD said.
The OECD also forecast that the British economy would shrink by 4.7 percent this year -- worse than the prior estimate of a 4.3-percent contraction -- followed by modest growth of 1.2 percent in 2010.