OPEC to keep oil flowing

VIENNA: OPEC ministers gathering Wednesday in Vienna for a meeting looked almost certain to keep the oil cartel's output steady, with a rally in crude prices taking the pressure off the cartel, analysts say.

The price of crude has risen sharply to above 60 dollars a barrel in recent weeks, which has relieved OPEC members struggling with reduced export revenues even though the level is still below the 75 dollars they would like to see.

Forcing prices higher with a cut now, however, would dampen demand when major economies are still critically weak, while the "green shoots" of recovery are still far from justifying an increase in output, analysts say.

Prices hit a six-month high above 63 dollars on Wednesday, helped by comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi, the most influential OPEC delegate, that he saw a tepid recovery in demand from Asia and the US.

"You bet we're seeing it (increased demand) from some of our customers for more oil, and we're providing it," Nuaimi told reporters.

"There is a lot of optimism in what I am saying because I see the recovery coming," said Nuaimi, who has ruled out a cut and wants OPEC to "stay the course" with its current production.

A host of ministers arrived in Vienna on Wednesday ahead of a formal output meeting on Thursday when members are expected to maintain the status quo, a production target of 24.84 million barrels per day.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of world oil, cut its production target three times late last year to stabilise prices which tumbled from record highs above 147 dollars per barrel in July 2008 to 32.40 dollars in December.

The group seeks to influence prices by setting itself an output quota, with members given individual production targets which are reviewed at regular meetings.

Nuaimi has said he is worried about high oil stock levels in industrialised countries -- a sign that demand is weak -- but the feeling among analysts is that OPEC will prefer to hold their fire and let an economic recovery take root.

If demand were to pick up sharply, the cartel would be expected to increase production to keep a lid on prices, though Nuaimi said it was to early to talk about a hike.

The United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Mohammad bin Dhaen al-Hamli was clear that he saw the market as oversupplied at present, but he stopped short of calling for a cut.

"Certainly the market is oversupplied." he told reporters. "We have to look at the numbers."

Playing its traditional role as a price hawk, Iran has called for a cut, but its demands, like those of fellow hawk Venezuela, are often overlooked by the Gulf members who account for the bulk of OPEC's output.

Most analysts expect the rise in prices in recent weeks to around 60 dollars to satisfy OPEC members, which have seen their revenues from oil exports plummet since last July's record highs.

Furthermore, as noted by the energy watchdog the International Energy Agency, some OPEC members produced more than their quotas in April, so if the cartel wanted to cut production it could clamp down on this over-supply.

A further cut could also expose the fragility of OPEC's discipline which has struck analysts.

"We don't believe that anyone could seriously believe that OPEC will cut production targets again at its meeting on Thursday, especially as compliance dipped in April to 77 percent from 82 percent in March," said analyst Peter Hutton at NCB Oils.

On Sunday, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil also forecast that OPEC ministers would maintain current production quotas.

"We need the world economy to pick up again and I think maintaining the status quo goes in that direction," he said on the margins of a meeting of G8 energy ministers in Rome.

"Maintaining the status quo, given that prices are rising, is a wise solution. Why... break the cycle of growth that we are already seeing on the horizon?" he added, noting that a consensus was building among OPEC members.

One consultancy prepared to believe in a cut is JBC Energy, which sees the risk of sharp falls in oil prices in the months ahead.

"It is our view that OPEC needs to look beyond the current oil price and heed the weak prompt market fundamentals," JBC said in a research note.