Bangalore, September 4

The Chinese yuan will weaken further over the next 12 months as policymakers ramp up efforts to support the economy through further stimulus or another currency devaluation, a Reuters poll found.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) sent shockwaves through global financial markets on August 11 by devaluing yuan by nearly two per cent, triggering fears of a currency war.

Though policymakers have repeatedly tried to reassure markets since then that they see no reason for further declines, many traders believe there is political pressure for a deeper depreciation as the world’s second-largest economy slows.

The renminbi is expected to weaken another two per cent in six months and the poll of 30 currency strategists showed it will trade at 6.50 to the dollar by November-end and 6.52 by February-end, before recovering to 6.46 in a year from now.

Those estimates are lower than a poll last month and come on the back of expectations of further easing from the central bank. The PBoC has already cut lending rates five times since November in the hopes of reigniting the economy.

“There is definitely need for more liberalisation for the currency and we think given the economic circumstances, once the currency has more room to float for time being it will be on the weaker side,” said Martin Gueth, strategist at LBBW.

A few analysts in the poll were more pessimistic than the consensus and predicted the yuan will dive to 6.80 in 12 months from around 6.35 today.

China figured as the biggest risk among 50 analysts in a separate poll this week and concerns that it may allow yuan to weaken further will haunt emerging market currencies for some time, they said.

The Indian rupee, on the other hand, is expected to rise slightly over one per cent in a year, as investor inflows into the economy offset the impact of an expected hike in interest rates in the United States.

The Federal Reserve could start raising rates as early as this month, though some analysts believe it will wait a bit longer to see if China’s slowdown and recent global market turmoil impact US growth.

The Indian rupee has weakened around three per cent to its lowest in two years in the immediate aftermath of the yuan devaluation last month. But it is expected to trade at 65.83 to the dollar by November-end, 65.73 by February-end and 65.60 in a year, from today’s 66.40.