Key Takeaways:
- Active monsoon system is intensifying rainfall across central and western Nepal
- Lumbini and Karnali face the highest risk today, with conditions worsening overnight in Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki
- Major cities including Pokhara, Kathmandu, and Taplejung are highly likely to experience significant rainfall
- Authorities urge residents in flood‑ and landslide‑prone areas to remain vigilant and avoid unnecessary travel
The Meteorological Forecasting Division has warned of very heavy rainfall in parts of Lumbini and Karnali provinces on Monday as the monsoon trough has shifted slightly north of its normal position, increasing the likelihood of intense downpours across several regions.
According to the Division's latest 24-hour forecast, one or two places in the hilly region of Karnali and both the hilly and Terai regions of Lumbini are likely to receive very heavy rainfall during the day. Heavy rainfall is also forecast at isolated locations in the country's hilly regions and the Terai belt of Lumbini Province.
The weather office said the country remains under the influence of the active monsoon system, with the monsoon trough currently lying slightly north of its average position near Nepal's Terai. Such a pattern typically enhances moisture flow and raises the risk of prolonged rainfall over central and western parts of the country.
Rain accompanied by thunder and lightning is expected at many places in the hilly region and at a few locations in the Terai during the day, while light to moderate snowfall or rainfall is also likely in parts of the Himalayan region.
Conditions are expected to intensify overnight, with heavy rainfall forecast for isolated areas of Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. The Division has also warned of very heavy rainfall at one or two places in the Himalayan and hilly regions of Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki provinces later tonight.
Among major cities, Pokhara has the highest probability of rainfall at 80 per cent throughout the day and night, followed by Kathmandu with a 70 per cent chance. Taplejung is also expected to receive widespread rainfall overnight, with an 80 per cent probability.
The Meteorological Forecasting Division has advised residents, particularly those living in flood- and landslide-prone areas, to remain alert as intense rainfall may trigger flash floods, landslides and disruptions to transport and daily life.