KATHMANDU, JUNE 23
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development has said despite projections of an average/below-average monsoon for 2023, the risk of devastating floods remains alarmingly high in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.
The recent incidents in Nepal and north-eastern India have demonstrated the potential consequences. Heavy rainfall triggered deadly flooding, claiming lives and displacing the communities. Climate change has intensified rainfall patterns, increasing the likelihood of severe floods.
ICIMOD has urged immediate action to improve forecasting and early warning systems, especially by installing community-based flood alerts in major flood-prone areas.
The 2023 monsoon is projected to be average and even below average. However, for the disaster events, this does not translate to a reduced risk of floods. A single heavy spell of rain can trigger disastrous consequences.
"We saw two such incidents just over the weekend in eastern Nepal's Koshi Province where an overnight rainfall triggered flooding and landslides leading to five deaths and 28 missing people, and a flash flood in Sikkim in north-eastern India washed away bridges and major highways displacing local communities and thousands of tourists," said the ICIMOD.
According to the ICIMOD, June and September are the crucial months for the HKH region, with the monsoon rains accounting for 80 per cent of the region's annual precipitation. The increasing unpredictability of the season, however, is causing chains of disastrous events, leaving the countries in the region struggling to adapt and respond.
"We have had several recent incidents where a single event has triggered disastrous impacts - the 2022 Pakistan floods which led to 1,730 deaths and economic losses tallying over USD 15 billion being the most recent. Climate change has led to alarming changes in rainfall patterns, intensifying the frequency and magnitude of precipitation. As a result, heavy rainfall within short durations have become more common in the HKH region, posing severe flood risks. The monsoon projection for 2023 is strikingly similar to that for 2014, wherein experts projected an average to below-average monsoon across South Asia. The year proved to be a disastrous one for Nepal, wherein heavy rainfall from August 14 to 16 caused massive flooding and landslides in 18 districts, leading to 53 deaths, countless displacements and economic losses of USD 140 million. All of us would want 2023 to be strikingly different from 2014 in terms of preparedness," stated the ICIMOD.
"We know that early warning and information are key to reducing the risks. While short-term local events, particularly flash floods, are challenging prediction - community-based flood early warning systems provide a couple of hours' lead time and the Flash Flood Prediction Tool provides 54 hours' lead time. Our work complements the work of meteorology and hydrology agencies in the HKH regional countries, who compile and share critical impending disaster warnings as text messages to the local leaders in the vulnerable communities. While information is crucial, it is imperative for the communities to thoroughly assess their environment and take proactive measures. This includes identifying safer zones, ensuring access to emergency food supplies and maintaining constant communication with the local leaders."
ICIMOD has partnered with the national and local entities to improve forecast and early warning systems in the region. Community-based flood early warning systems give the communities a lead time of a couple of hours to make critical life-saving decisions.
"With our support, the partners have installed three stations in Afghanistan, seven in India, 11 in Nepal and five in Pakistan. Several other development actors are also involved in installing community-based flood early warning systems in the region. It is vital that more such early warning systems be installed in major flood-prone tributaries. For maximum impact, scaling of these efforts is necessary. The region needs to make significant national-level investments in forecasting and early warning systems. This is a pivotal moment to address the impacts caused by past monsoons and work towards a safer future. The impact of monsoons is increasingly devastating each year and the countries in the region continue to grapple with the challenges," said the ICIMOD. The World Bank projects that the GDP per capita change due to climate change will be higher than the global average of seven per cent for South Asian countries.
A version of this article appears in the print on June 24, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.
