Nepal next in quake line after Haiti?

KATHMANDU: As Haiti counts the cost of last month’s devastating earthquake, experts are warning of the potential for an even greater disaster in Nepal.

Geologists say it is only a matter of time before a major earthquake hits the densely populated Kathmandu, where 2.5 million people live in cramped, poorly-built housing with little or no awareness of the dangers.

Nepal sits on the border between two huge plates that have moved together over millions of years to form the Himalayas. Geologists believe it is at risk from an earthquake with a magnitude of around eight — 10 times as powerful as the Haiti shock.

Nepal has not suffered a major

quake for decades, and expert

David Petley believes the country is woefully unprepared.

“From a geological perspective the risk seems to be very large indeed,” said Petley, Wilson professor of hazard

and risk at Britain’s Durham University. “The area to the west of Kathmandu is undergoing the processes that drive earthquakes, and there has not been a quake on that section of the fault for hundreds of years.

“The larger the time gap (between quakes) the larger the quake is

going to be.” Many other major cities

in the region are vulnerable to

large earthquakes.

But a 2001 study by GeoHazards International, a US research group set up to reduce the human impact of natural disasters, found Kathmandu would suffer the worst losses. Very low building standards, weak infrastructure and the fact that Kathmandu is built on the soft sediment of a former lake bed all contribute to the high risk level.

Like Port au Prince, Kathmandu is served by just one single-runway airport, but unlike the Haitian capital it has no port, and experts believe the only three roads into the city would likely be destroyed in a major quake. Experts warn that few of the hospitals and government buildings could withstand a major quake.

Geologist Amod Mani Dixit was working for the Nepal government on landslide prevention in 1988 when a 6.5-magnitude earthquake struck the east of the country.

The high death toll and damage caused by the quake prompted him to set up the National Society for Earthquake Technology to raise public awareness of the dangers and help make schools and hospitals safer.

“It was a moderate earthquake, but the impact was huge,” said Dixit.

After discovering that none of Nepal’s government schools had been built

to withstand quakes, Dixit launched

a programme to make school

buildings more earthquake-resistant. But he says much more needs to be done in Nepal, where awareness of the risk remains very low. “It’s not just buildings, but also a lack of knowledge that kills. Mindsets and practices need to be changed,” he said.

Safety tips

• Duck under a desk or table. Stay away from windows, bookcases, file cabinets, heavy mirrors

and objects that could fall.

• If in a high-rise building, move against an interior wall and protect your head with your arms.

• If outdoors, move to a clear area away from trees, signs, buildings, electrical wires, and poles.

• If on a sidewalk near buildings, duck into a doorway.

• If driving, pull over and stop.

Stay inside the vehicle.

• If in public places, don’t

rush for exits.

• If on a wheelchair, stay in it. Move to cover, lock your wheels, protect your head with your arms.

AFTER THE SHOCK

• Plan where you will take cover.

• Check for injuries. Give first aid.

• Check gas, electric lines.

• Tune to the emergency broadcast station on radio or television.

FAMILY READINESS

• Create a Family Earthquake Plan

• Know the safe spot in each room

• Conduct drills. Learn first aid

• Decide where your family