An overview of the national political scene State of flux
The high octane political drama unfolding over the fortnight has come down to the Maoists eventually leaving the government. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” has resigned over the issue of sacking the Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) Rookmangud Katawal. Meanwhile CoAS Katawal has ignored the government sack order and is continuing in his job. The largely ceremonial presidency has also been dragged into this political milieu, with President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav superceding government’s order to retire the army chief, by sending letter of what amounts literally to be his reinstatement. Prachanda has termed the President’s order unconstitutional, while opposition pleads government act of sacking the army chief unconstitutional. The nation has plunged into a serious constitutional crisis with potentially debilitating consequences with direct impact on the logical course of peace process.
Although the initial peace talks envisioned the final status of the Maoist combatants to be settled before the peace process progressed towards the Constituent Assembly election and formation of new government with fresh mandate; the debate over their reintegration into the society or the national army dragged on and has not been settled yet. As such big distance between the national army and the government of the former combatants (encamped and potentially battle ready) remained. The aura of mistrust and lack of respect meant that a potentially
explosive situation arising was always in arms length. Even before the Maoist government was formed the Army had been issuing its statements where it opposed the reintegration of what it called the “politically indoctrinated” combatants in the national army of “de-politicised” nature. While the Maoists had been always advocating what they called the “reformation” and “democratization” of erstwhile “feudal” national army with the inclusion of their combatants.
All major political parties opposed total reintegration of Maoist combatants into the national army fearing the Maoist takeover of the armed forces. As such the issue of the combatants’ final status always remained vague while political course trudged along with the formation of the Maoist government. The political dilly dallying has up to this moment disallowed the final settlement of the Maoist combatants. Although Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) was formed in October 2008 and it subsequently formed a technical committee to report and recommends the integration, the work has not progressed beyond the visit to the combatants’ encampment by the team. Against this backdrop, the national Army issued vacancy announcement and enlisted what it termed the regular recruitment exercise not disbarred by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in December.
Although the UNMIN issued statement terming the recruitment in breach of the ceasefire Code of Conduct, the CPA and the Agreement on Monitoring the Management of Arms and Armies (AMMAA), the Army however termed its recruitment within the bounds of previously apportioned lot - not an additional recruitment as barred by the agreements. The defense minister Ram Bahadur Thapa “Badal” issued directive to the Army to halt its recruitment process which the Army refused, with the case eventually referred to the Supreme Court where the verdict essentially vindicated the Army’s move, however barring it to recruit any further.
The issue of retirement of eight Brigadier Generals came to the fore. The government decided not to extend the tenure of the Generals, who then moved the Supreme Court against government’s decision. It further deepened the rift between the Army and the government. Again, the Army withdrew from the sports, participated in by the Maoist combatants in the National Games. Eventually sensing the serious breach of subordination by the Army, the government sought to seek clarification from the Army Chief on April 20 giving him 24 hours to submit answers. Even before the clarification was furnished, the government gave indication that it was going to sack the Army Chief. Although the main opposition Nepali Congress (NC) opposed vociferously the impending sacking of the Army Chief, UML was split on its decision till late. However when the sack order was given definitively UML joined NC in its protest of the Maoist move and withdrew from the government - forcing the government to be minority. NC was quick to ask for government’s resignation.
A state of flux has descended upon the political landscape of the country where the peace process is in serious danger of derailing. Any government formed without the Maoist participation is disastrous as political verdict of the April 10, 2008 Constituent Assembly election definitively gave them popular mandate.
However the Maoist heavy handedness in the execution of government affairs itself has brought fore this situation where all major political parties, even the parties included in the coalition government are opposed to the way the Maoists have conducted the state affairs. Only a truly consensus government formed with all major political parties is capable of traversing this state of flux.