With the announcement of the local elections on May 13, election fever appears to have gripped the whole of the country. The UML has already launched a nationwide training programme, and the RPP has decided to compete in all the positions of the local government round the country. The Nepali Congress has conducted a meeting to decide whether to continue with the coalition or go all alone in the election.
Though the history of local elections goes as far back as 1950 in Nepal, those held in the year 1992 and 1997 are more memorable as being organised after the restoration of multi democracy polity in 1990.
But the more contextual is the last election convoked in 2017 after the promulgation of the new Federal Constitution. It was won by the UML with the Nepali Congress coming a close second and the Maoists a distant third, bagging 40.24, 32.69 and 15.53 per cent of the total office bearers.
The result of the office bearers consisting of mayors and deputy mayors of the municipalities and chairpersons and vice-chairpersons in the rural municipalities followed a similar pattern, with 41.5, 32.47 and 14.41 per cent going to these parties, respectively.
The most striking feature of this election was the emergence of women leaders, which is almost 48 per cent of these office bearers.
More notable is the participation of women of the depressed castes that hovers near to 19 per cent of the total elected personnel.
The UML has already declared that it will plough a lonely furrow and will not enter into any alliance in this forthcoming local election. But it has kept its door open for minor adjustments if required in the local level.
The communist parties of Nepal can, however, make a volte face any time ascribing it to the demand of the changing time. The MCC is a glaring example.
All the major communist parties had supported it in the past, but they are showing a different degree of unwillingness to pass it now.
It means that the possibility of a united front of the UML, MC (Maoist Centre) and US (Unified Socialist) has petered out for the time being. It, however, cannot be wished out of existence because Prachanda has indicated in a recent interview about knocking on the Balkot gate if the need arises. So, the MC and US have either to enter into association with the NC or with each other. Shekhar group of the NC has already ruled out affiliation with the duo. That leaves these parties to go alone or make a bilateral alignment.
The advantage of going alone is that it reveals the real popularity base of the parties. It also relieves voters from the ideological pain that they go through while voting for an aligned party not by choice but by compulsion.
It is then clear that the local election will be a bipolar contest between the NC and the UML. The UML has made a high decibel claim that it will sweep all the three tiers of the elections, but it is nothing more than a loudmouth for several reasons.
Firstly, it has carried out non-constitutional acts of dissolving the parliament not once but on two occasions.
Moreover, there has been a vertical crack after the exit of the Madhav Nepal group in the party despite its utterance that the exit has at the most made only a surficial impact.
Thirdly, its failure to complete the full term despite receiving a near to two-thirds majority will dampen heavily its prospects of winning the election. Its margin of around 10 per cent over the NC of the last local election should have thus slumped considerably.
For this, one can only peep back to two decades of political history of our own country. The example of the loss after the failure to survive the full term is the defeat of the Nepali Congress in the 1994 election.
Yet another vivid example is the defeat of the UML after its fragmentation in 1999. So, the UML has not one but more elephants in the room, which will take a Herculean effort to contain.
Its competitor, the NC, also has not performed as desired as the leader of the coalition. The failure to address the border dispute with India, the sagging economy, the dis-functioning of the Judiciary as well as the parliament have been raised as a string of its failures in pitched voice even though the UML is also a party to them. Despite these realities, it has certainly made adverse impacts on the NC vote bank, however little or more.
It then follows that there will be a tough fight between the NC and UML for supremacy in the local government.
The NC, however, appears to maintain an edge however slim or large for several factors. First and foremost, it has shown how it honours its commitments very firmly as seen glaringly in the MCC episode.
It does not change its opinion like a chameleon changes its colour every now and then.
Second, it played a dignified role as the opposition to the extent of even supporting the plan and policy of the government, which is contrary to the religion of an opposition party.
It had provided an opportunity for the majority government to work for the development of the country, which had been hampered greatly due to the frequent changes of the government.
It is very difficult to predict the future course of events and less so of the election outcomes. Because it is like a multi-headed chimera. Several factors make their presence behind the curtain. Money and muscle power begin assuming a determining role, while ideology finds place in the back burner.
Despite this, the NC appears to be heading for a victory by whatever slight a margin. Even if there is an alliance between the UML and MC, people will not vote for it due to the dishonor shown to the two-third majority awarded by them.
The possibility of a united front of the UML, MC and US has petered out for now. It, however, cannot be wished out of existence because Prachanda has indicated in an interview about knocking on the Balkot gate if the need arises. So, the MC and US have either to enter into association with the NC or with each other
A version of this article appears in the print on February 15, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.