The world may be heading towards the extinction of human beings if the present mindset of the countries, particularly that of the carbon emitters, prolongs
The proceedings of the 29th World Climate Change Conference in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, more popularly known as the Conference of Parties (COP 29), has dominated the news headlines since its beginning last week. Quite a few world leaders, if not many as seen in the last COPs, have assembled in the conference. They have aired their views about the devastating effects of climate change that have manifested in the form of wild fires in the winter and deluge in the summer round the globe.
The probability of climate change was predicted by French scientist Joseph Fourier way back in the year 1824 when we were building the Dharahara in Nepal. In the following years, the use of fossil fuel increased manifold. Consequently, emission of one of the main drivers of climate change, carbon dioxide gas (Co2), reached a tolerable 280 parts per million during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. But it has now spiked to 415, leading to the present alarming situation.
The Baku Conference appears to be heading to yet another fiasco as many of its predecessors in the past. It should have focussed on the main issues such as the financing of poor countries like Nepal, which have been bearing the brunt of the adverse effects of climate change for none of its faults but of the rich countries. But it has been dogged by important but unrelated problems like the lack of human rights in the host country. The description of petroleum products as the gift of God by the conference host, President Ilham Aliyev, has further added fuel to this fire to the extent of many talking about the wrong selection of Baku as the host venue.
President Ram Chandra Paudel has returned after pleading for the immediate financing of poor countries like Nepal, which is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change despite its near zero carbon emission of around 0.29 per cent. He highlighted the need of drastically cutting military spending and diverting it to climate financing.
One of the world's largest emitters, the United States, has been at the forefront of criticism especially after the return of Donald Trump to power as the President due to his continued assertion that climate change is nothing more than a hoax. As a result, Trump withdrew from the 2016 Paris conference (COP 21) which had decided to confine the global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It had joined the climate change bonhomie after Biden became the President, but the replay of the past appears likely with the return of Trump in U.S. politics again.
It has become glaringly clear that the world has been suffering from disasters like floods and landslides due to climate change, which in turn has been caused by global warming. Global warming has been on the rise due to a corresponding surge in greenhouse gases like methane, nitrogen oxide, ozone and mainly carbon dioxide, which is formed by the increasing use of petroleum products.
The warming of the earth increases the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, which eventually falls as rain. The overpouring of a year's rain in eight hours in Spain resulting in the flooding of the beautiful city of Valencia is a burning example, which killed more than 200 people. Similar numbers of deaths occurred in Nepal when it received heavy rain to the tune of 624 millimeters in its west at Dodhara Chadani overnight, beating the earlier record of 540 millimeters in 1993 at Titsung, central Nepal.
That the situation will worsen in the future is evident from the recording of this year as one of the hottest together with last year. It is more likely that next year will be equally or even hotter, creating more sea water vapour culminating in heavy rain. The only way out of this impasse is to reduce the use of petroleum products, which however, has been falling on deaf years particularly of the developing countries.
There have been some responses, mostly lukewarm, such as drawing a plan of having zero emission by 2050. But for this, the carbon emission has to decrease by 45 per cent of the 2010 level by 2030, which appears insurmountable as it needs action, not merely words. These are, however, conspicuous by the near absence.
What is of immediate need is the financing of poor nations which have been facing the problems because of the high carbon emissions by the rich countries. Following the widely accepted polluter pays principle, the rich countries are obliged to contribute to the global climate change fund. A conservative estimate has put it at 1 trillion US dollars per year, which has sent these countries wagging the proverbial tongues. But there should not be the dearth of funding if these countries emulate the Nordic countries. The Nordic countries, for example, have already contributed to the Green Climate Fund to carry out the mitigation as well as adaptation measures.
The world may be heading towards the extinction of human beings if the present mindset of the countries, particularly that of the carbon emitters, prolongs. For the earth, global warming will be yet another event as such an event had occurred in the past in the cretaceous period some 144 million years ago. Then the temperature rose to 8 degrees and the carbon emission surged to 1000 parts per million as against the 1.5 and 415 respectively at present. As a result, many living beings became extinct.
Similar may be the case in the future as it will be difficult to reverse if not acted immediately. Unfortunately, the world leaders do not seem to realise this harsh reality as seen by more controversies than consensus in the Baku Conference on one hand and the indifference of the second-most emitter, the United States, under Donald Trump on the other.
