When the results of the ongoing elections in northern Uttar Pradesh state are out on May 11 chances are high that a ‘hung’ assembly would emerge, reflective of the highly fragmented polity in India’s most populous province. And, like the previous elections held for the UP assembly in February 2002, India’s two largest political parties, the federally-ruling Congress party and its arch-rival, the pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), can be expected to be once again relegated to the margins.

The main political adversaries in the province are lower caste formations - the Samajwadi Party (SP) that represents the middle and lower peasantry and has been ruling UP over the last three and a half years and its rival the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) that counts ‘dalits’ (so-called untouchables) among its main supporters. In the 2002 elections the SP obtained 143 seats in the 403-member state assembly, but was unable to lead the government for a year and a half because the second largest political party, the BSP (with 98 seats) and the third largest party, the BJP (88 seats), formed an alliance to block it.

Uttar Pradesh accounts for roughly a sixth of India’s total population of 1.1 billion. The province returns 80 out of the 543 members of the lower house of Parliament or Lok Sabha. If UP had been an independent nation, it would have been the sixth most populous country in the world. Nearly all of India’s prime ministers have come from this state and it used to be said that whoever is in power in Lucknow (the state’s capital) also rules New Delhi.

According to pre-poll surveys, Mayawati’s BSP now stands the best chance of emerging as the single biggest formation in the state. “The reason why the BSP will do well is that it has been able to forge a coalition which goes beyond its traditional supporters among the low-castes and include many belonging to the upper-castes,” explains Zoya Hasan, professor of history at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

“The ‘dalits’ comprise roughly a fifth of the population of UP and are geographically evenly spread,” points out Manini Chatterjee, political editor of the Indian Express newspaper. She said that many candidates put up by the BSP belong to the upper-castes in a strategic move made by Mayawati, India’s tallest dalit leader. “The BSP is assured of the support of those from the lowest castes who also belong to the lowest economic class; in addition, those belonging to other castes and classes are going along with the BSP because they perceive the party’s candidates as individuals with the greatest chance of winning,” Chatterjee adds.

Both the BJP and the Congress party have major stakes in at least a good showing in the present elections because it could affect their political fortunes when elections to the national parliament are held in 2009. If the BJP does not win at that time, it could well face political oblivion.

For the Congress party a victory in 2009 is crucial if it is to carry forward its economic policies, which are based on attracting foreign direct investment and increasing the pace of industrialisation that have already resulted in a steady nine per cent plus annual growth rates.

But there is widespread criticism that this growth has been largely confined to the elite sections of the Indian society. — IPS