Haider Rizvi

The Barack Obama administration’s apparent resolve to take US foreign policy in a new direction is creating ripples of hope for an enhanced UN agenda on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Observers and diplomats who are due to take part in a major meeting to discuss progress on the implementation of the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) said they had never before been so optimistic about the UN-led negotiation process. “I think Obama is sincere about what he is saying,” said David Krieger, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, an advocacy group that works closely with the UN. “I think he is willing to stand up against the vested interests.” Many peace activists, like Krieger, believe that the threat of a possible nuclear catastrophe is not going to go away so long as the major nuclear powers remain reluctant to take drastic steps towards dismantling their nuclear arsenals.

Countries that rolled back their weapons programmes, as well as those that never produced such arms, have long been calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons, but the response they received from the major nuclear powers has always been disappointing.

In addition to actions against the spread of nuclear weapons, the NPT requires the five declared nuclear states — the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China — to engage in “good faith” negotiations for disarmament. Until now that task has remained elusive. The Bush administration is held responsible by many for sabotaging the UN agenda on disarmament by its decision to abrogate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and to install controversial missile defences in countries located next to Russia’s borders.

Currently, a coalition of peace advocacy groups is running a nationwide signature campaign to press Obama to take immediate, effective, and practical measures for the elimination of nuclear weapons. “Nuclear weapons could destroy civilisation and end intelligent life on the planet,” said the campaign in a letter to Obama. “The only sure way to prevent nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism and nuclear war is to rid the world of nuclear weapons.” Krieger said that so far over 50,000 people, including some Noble laureates, have signed the letter. He expects that by next month when the letter is due to be delivered to the White House, at least one million people would have endorsed it.

According to unconfirmed reports, the Obama administration is already engaged in negotiations on the proposal to reduce the number of nuclear weapons to 1,000 in the first phase and that it is possible that the reaction from Moscow is likely to be positive.

However, in Krieger’s view, that would happen only if the Obama administration takes a different position on the deployment of the American missile defence systems in Eastern Europe, which Russia perceives to be a threat to its sovereignty. While Krieger and many others seem satisfied with the gradual and phased reduction of nuclear weapons on both sides, some nuclear abolitionists remain sceptical about the outcome of such measures. Zia Mian, a nuclear physicist, who plans to attend the upcoming NPT preparatory meeting in May, said: “If Obama wants a real change, he must say: We are going to negotiate a treaty now to eliminate the nuclear weapons.”