Early warning's success ultimately depends on whether people at risk receive timely, understandable, and actionable warnings – and have the knowledge, resources, and opportunity to act
Early warning systems are among the most proven, effective, and cost-efficient ways to save lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce disaster losses. Yet, despite significant progress globally, nearly one-third of the world's population still lacks access to adequate early warning systems, with the largest gaps found in developing and least developed countries. For a disaster-prone country like Nepal, early warning is not simply a development priority. It is a practical investment in saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and making better use of limited resources.
The global push to close this gap gained momentum when UN Secretary-General António Guterres launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh in 2022. The initiative aims to ensure everyone, everywhere is protected by multi-hazard early warning systems by 2027. As part of this effort, 30 highly disaster-prone countries, including Nepal, were identified to develop national EW4All roadmaps.
Nepal received a formal communication from the UN Secretary-General to the Prime Minister in March 2023, urging stronger early warning systems. The agenda gained further attention during his visit to Nepal and his engagement on EW4All at COP28.
The process accelerated in early 2025 under the leadership of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). A national focal point and pillar leads from relevant federal ministries were designated, while a technical working group of more than 40 national and international organisations was established under UN leadership. Drawing on national and international experience, the government subsequently prepared Nepal's national EW4All roadmap.
The roadmap focuses on four interconnected areas: strengthening disaster risk knowledge; improving hazard detection, observation, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; strengthening warning dissemination and communication; and enhancing the response capacity of government institutions and communities.
Importantly, Nepal's roadmap recognises that early warning is much more than forecasting a hazard or sending an alert. A warning is useful only when it reaches the right people, in a language and form they understand, through channels they can access, and early enough for them to take appropriate action. Increasingly, warnings must also be impact-based – communicating not only what hazard is expected, but what it could mean for people, livelihoods, infrastructure, and essential services.
The proposed roadmap takes a multi-hazard approach, covering risks such as floods – including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) – landslides, heat and cold waves, forest fires, and other emerging hazards. It also recognises the need to strengthen the technical and managerial capacities of all three tiers of government, non-state actors, and communities. Given Nepal's exposure to hazards that can cross national boundaries, the roadmap places particular emphasis on cross-border and transboundary information sharing and cooperation.
Equally important is the roadmap's commitment to gender equality, disability, and social inclusion (GEDSI). The roadmap promotes the meaningful participation of women, children, older people, persons with disabilities, Indigenous Peoples, marginalised communities, and those in remote areas in designing accessible warning messages and communication channels, while recognising communities as both recipients and holders of valuable local knowledge. The roadmap is estimated to require US$360 million over five years, from 2026 to 2030, to establish and strengthen the systems and capacities needed to make EW4All a reality in Nepal.
Ensuring access to life-saving information should also be seen as a matter of equity and climate justice. Communities that are most vulnerable to climate-related disasters should not be the last to receive the information they need to protect themselves. Given Nepal's vulnerability to climate change, particularly in its mountains, the country should also use global climate finance and international commitments to mobilise resources for strengthening its early warning systems.
The challenge now is to move from planning to implementation. Although Nepal's EW4All roadmap was finalised by the end of 2025, it has yet to be translated into a government-approved framework and implemented at scale.
For Nepal, Early Warnings for All should therefore be treated not merely as an international commitment, but as a national investment in saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and building a more resilient society.
Countries advancing their EW4All roadmaps are increasingly accessing international technical assistance, partnerships, and finance. Nepal should not wait for another major disaster to expose gaps in preparedness, communication, and response. Recent devastating floods and other disasters have again demonstrated the consequences of inadequate risk information and preparedness, while highlighting the urgent need for global action on the climate crisis and its growing impacts in the mountains.
The government should urgently approve the national EW4All roadmap and establish clear institutional responsibilities, financing, and implementation mechanisms. Federal, provincial, and local governments should integrate their priorities into disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, and development plans and budgets. Development partners, donors, and civil society should likewise align support with Nepal's EW4All priorities, moving beyond fragmented projects towards a sustainable, integrated, and people-centred system. Communities, academia, the private sector and media can help ensure warnings reflect people's needs and realities.
Early warning is not an end in itself. Its success ultimately depends on whether people at risk receive timely, understandable, and actionable warnings – and have the knowledge, resources, and opportunity to act.
The time to approve and implement the roadmap is now – before the next disaster, not after it.
Dr Gentle is an independent Nepali professional working on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction