Jiba Raj Pokharel:

Nepal is going to be rocked by an earthquake of a significant size that will kill 40,000 people and injure 95,000 in Kathmandu alone any time in the future, according to a study carried out by National Society for Earthquake Technology. Another study made by Japanese International Cooperation Agency has indicated that there are going to be 18,000 deaths and 53,000 injuries. The casualty is likely to be far more due to more people entering the valley. Apart from this, a large number of buildings and much infrastructure will be damaged. The scene around the country is not going to be any bright given the construction of heavy stone walled buildings in the Himalayas and the hills not resistant to earthquake. The urban areas are going to be severely devastated due to the construction of reinforced concrete structures but without incorporating earthquake resistant techniques.

If we continue crying wolf, there will be a replay of the post 1833 and 1934 earthquake scenes. We should follow ways and means by which this disaster can be avoided to a large extent. Instead of taking earthquake as a fait accompli, if we move in a planned manner, this disaster can be averted. The solution of this problem lies in a two-pronged approach to the construction of earthquake resistant buildings in the future and the retrofitting or strengthening of the buildings constructed in the past. In the rural areas, where there is abundance of stone and timber-joisted constructions, the answer lies in the construction of the wall with staggered joints in the successive courses; the placement of a large stone in alternate layers; the laying of timber members along the wall in the plinth, sill and the lintel level as is done in Jumla, diagonal strutting of the joists in the floor and the rafter in the roof. This can be done by providing training to the masons in the rural areas. The retrofitting can be done following similar measures. For this engineering and science students need to be trained and deployed in the time of their vacations. The Institute of Engineering with support from UNDP and Action Aid has started this campaign and it is seeking to provide it continuity.

It is an encouraging development that many housing companies like Civil Homes have been constructing earthquake resistant buildings in their colony. The housing colonies, the banks, the NGOs and the academic centres could hold an interaction with the owners located in the city centre towards the exchange of their city centre property with the housing companies. The owner could then be given an earthquake resistant home, a suitable transport and some money in lieu of the property at the city centre because the centre property fetches a large amount of money. The company could then demolish and construct new earthquake resistant buildings. Such new buildings could be sold to non-resident Nepalis or given back to the owners if interested to stay in the original place. The exchange of money from either side can take place according to the valuation of the city centre property.

One can thus see how easy it is to take seismic Hardy by Nepali Laurel in the ring if it is planned and executed properly. If we do not act our condition will be much worse than that of Sri Lanka, which was dealt a heavy blow by the tsunami. The earthquake in Nepal is going to be much devastating than the tsunami as the tsunami hit only the coastal areas. But the earthquake in Nepal will penetrate deep into its heart and Nepal will be like a person struck by a massive heart attack immediately ascending to the heavenly abode.

Dr Pokharel is vice-president, Nepal Centre for Disaster Management