If not all rosy, the economic situation is not all doom and gloom, but we must direct our focus towards agriculture, construction and industry

The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) has projected that the country’s economy will grow by 5.89 per cent this ongoing fiscal 2017-18. The forecast for the current fiscal unveiled on Wednesday, almost a month after Yuba Raj Khatiwada painted a bleak picture of country’s economy, shows the economic situation of the country is not all doom and gloom. The CBS forecast for economic growth, however, is close to the Ministry of Finance’s projection (6 per cent) for this fiscal during the mid-term review of the budget a few months ago. The CBS has stated that the size of economy will grow to Rs 3,007.25 billion in this fiscal from Rs 2,642.6 billion from the last fiscal 2016-17, which is expected to make Nepalis’ per capita income to cross the $1,000 mark this fiscal. While unveiling the economic growth forecast for this fiscal, the CBS has also revised last fiscal’s growth from 6.9 per cent to 7.39 per cent,

There, however, are some interesting points in the CBS forecast. The country’s economy is largely driven by the tertiary sector, also known as the service sector, whose contribution to the economy this fiscal is expected to be 57.61 per cent. Wholesale and retail business, hotels and restaurants, real estate, public administration, defence, education and health among others make up the service sector. Similarly, the primary and secondary sector’s contributions to the economy are likely to hover around 28 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. The primary sector comprises agriculture, forestry, fishery and mines. Construction, industry, electricity, water and gas are the secondary sub-sectors. While a slow growth is expected in the agriculture and industrial outputs, the CBS has projected a good growth of 10.64 per cent in the construction sector. This though is down from the growth seen in the last fiscal, the double-digit growth in this sector for the two consecutive years just injects some vitality into economic development.

That said, it would be too early to conclude that Nepal’s economy is all set to bounce back. To sustain the economic growth, there is an urgent need to focus on primary (agriculture) and secondary sub-sectors such as construction industry and electricity. The agriculture sector, which is expected to have contributed 27.10 per cent in the GDP, has been forecast to grow at the slowest rate of 2.72 per cent. This has been largely attributed to the decline in paddy output. While focus should continue on the agriculture sector, construction and productive sectors should be encouraged to increase their contribution to economy. The country just marked the third anniversary of the 2015 earthquake the renewed pledge of expediting reconstruction which has so far been sluggish. Expeditious reconstruction, accelerated public capital spending, vibrant private economic activities and focus on industry and manufacturing are a must to provide a fillip to the economy. In the face of widening trade deficit, low productive activities, high unemployment rate and sluggish industrial development, sustaining the economic growth and taking it on the upward trend will be but an uphill task. Nonetheless, the economic situation is not that discouraging, if not all rosy.

Work in tandem

President Bidya Devi Bhandari on Wednesday inspected the Basantapur area and Hanumandhoka Durbar Museum, where she took stock of the progress being made to rebuild the heritage sites damaged in the 2015 earthquakes. Her visit coincides with the third anniversary of the quake that razed the Durbar Square into rubble. She also visited a temporary exhibition entitled “Resilience within the rubble” which provides information about the pre-and-post quake scenarios across the Kathmandu Valley.

Nothing has changed since the President visited the Durbar Square and Rani Pokhari last year, marking the second tragic year of the natural disaster. It is the collective responsibility of the National Reconstruction Authority, the Department of Archaeology and the Kathmandu Metropolitan City to plan and oversee the reconstruction of the damaged cultural and historical heritage sites. They must work together to rebuild the damaged heritage sites without indulging in blame game against one another. They must work round-the-clock so that the President will be able to throw open the rebuilt heritage sites, keeping intact their traditional designs, texture, cultural and religious values, when she visits there next year.