Whichever party forms the government, it should provide the much-needed political stability to the country. If the country is allowed to head for political turmoil, the economy will deteriorate heavily and go the Sri Lankan way. If it happens, the country will be mired in such a morass that escape from it will take a very long time.
KATHMANDU, DECEMBER 5
Nepali politics appears to be tottering on the precipice of instability in view of the political scenario that has emerged after the federal and provincial elections. The country has already been scarred by political instability that it went through in the pre federal era.
Like an island amidst a sea of instability, it had appeared immediately following the federal course that the country had taken the form of a near twothirds majority obtained by the Left Parties. However, it could not last long due to the never-ending fracas among its towering leaders.
This period was marked by a series of unconstitutional steps undertaken by the government of Prime Minister Oli. It gave birth to the coalition culture in Nepal.
But the coalition now appears to enjoy a wafer thin majority, increasing speculations about yet another cycle of political instability in the country.
This is very worrisome in view of the deteriorating economy of the country.
Though the economic indicators recently have shown an upward trend, these appear like mere flashes in the economic pan. This sine wave trajectory the country is taking may finally lead the economy to make a nosedive given the new emerging political situation.
Unfortunately, the political leaders do not seem to take note of this grim reality.
Had it been the case, they would not display the political volte face as has been seen in the probability of the parties changing their stand too often.
The party leaders in one instance vow to take the coalition forward, while immediately talking of becoming a part of another alignment.
The course of coalition politics in Nepal, though in a state of infancy, shows a strong resemblance to that of India. Whilst India formed a coalition of the Indian Congress and the Muslim League under the leadership of Jawahar Lal Nehru immediately after the independence achieved in 1947, Nepal also followed suit with the coalition of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Left Front under the leadership of Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai after the restoration of democracy in 1990.
Following this event, the Indian Congress achieved dominance for almost half a decade. In Nepal, the NC and the Unified Marx-ist-Leninist (UML) maintained their influence until the erstwhile Maoist Centre(MC) launched a rebellion in the country in the form of the People's War.
India underwent political turmoil with the defeat in the Indo-China War that led to inflation, making the daily life of the people very difficult. It is at this juncture that the Independent Party led by Acharya Kripalani emerged on the political scene. Though this party lacked political direction after the demise of Kripalani, it had polled almost 8 per cent of the votes with the victory of several leaders and had even achieved the status of the opposition party in some states.
In Nepal also, the independents made a dramatic entry in the political arena of Nepal with initial victo-ries obtained in the local election, marked by their win in the capital city and a few other municipalities outside, against the backdrop of the frontline parties' inability to deliver. The failure to spend the development budget followed by the inability to supply an item as essential as fertiliser in time to the farmers in an agrarian country exposed their political mediocrity.
The political leaders started being branded as successful in launching political movements but a total fiasco in developmental campaigns.
With the tail up with the initial success, an Independent Party was formed under the leadership of journalist Rabi Lamichhane, which has secured a fair number of seats in the direct election and consid-erably many under the proportionate system, emerging as the fourth largest party. It remains to be seen how this party will perform in view of the stark reality that politics is a different game compared to journalism which can thrive on criticism. In politics one has to make things happen unlike the blame game that can survive in journalism.
India embraced a coalition culture without which the formation of a government was remote. Following this, there have been several experiments in the provinces as well as at the centre. Some were homogenous consisting of a coalition of parties of similar ideologies, and there were heterogeneous ones also consisting of a coalition of democratic and left forces.
The glaring example is the United People's Alliance government headed by Mana Mohan Singh in coalition with the Left Front led by Prakash Karat.
In Nepal also, there are remote chances of forming the government by a single party. As a result, the coalition of the democratic and left forces was formed led by Sher Bahadur Deuba after the government headed by K P Oli went on an unconstitutional spree as evidenced by the dissolution of the parliament one after another against the verdict of the Supreme Court. But the coalition government's dismal performance while in power weighed heavily in its disfavour. Thus is clear from the present election with the reception of a lesser number of seats than expected.
This coalition appears to be making headway by bringing a few others into the fold, such as the Janamat Party. The UML also is making an effort, but it will be an uphill task, given its lesser representation in the parliament. Moreover, its constitutional move has tarred its image. Even though it has claimed that people have supported its attempt to go for the people's verdict by dissolving the parliament in view of the highest number of proportionate votes, it lacks steam because the following party, the NC, had contested for fewer number of seats.
Whichever party forms the government, it should provide the much-needed political stability to the country. If the country is allowed to head for political turmoil, the economy will deteriorate heavily and go the Sri Lankan way. If it happens, the country will be mired in such a morass that escape from it will take a very long time.
Whichever party forms the government, it should provide the much-needed political stability to the country. If the country is allowed to head for political turmoil, the economy will deteriorate heavily and go the Sri Lankan way. If it happens, the country will be mired in such a morass that escape from it will take a very long time
A version of this article appears in the print on December 6, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
