Tighter migration policies in Germany could indirectly affect Nepal, particularly concerning the integrity of its diaspora communities
The federal elections in Germany are scheduled for February 23, having been preponed seven months due to the collapse of the governing coalition in December 2024. A total of 630 members will be elected to the 21st Bundestag (German Parliament).
Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is seeking a second term, facing off against Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). However, much attention is focused on the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has, for the first time, put forward Alice Weidel as its chancellor candidate. Remarkably, Weidel has received a strong backing from Elon Musk, the special government employee in the Trump administration.
The ultra-nationalist AfD was founded in 2013 by a group of economists and academics who initially opposed the European Union's financial policies. However, the party quickly shifted its focus to immigration, criticising the lenient migration policies of Chancellor Angela Merkel's administration. In the 2013 federal election, the AfD narrowly missed the 5 per cent threshold required to enter the Bundestag. However, Merkel's open-door refugee policy, which allowed over a million asylum seekers-mainly from Syria and the Middle East-into Germany on humanitarian grounds, fueled a surge in support for the party. Capitalising on anti-immigration sentiment, the AfD secured 12.6 per cent votes in the 2017 federal election, becoming the third-largest party in Parliament. This marked the first time since World War II that a far-right party had entered the Bundestag.
Since then, the AfD's popularity has grown gradually, particularly in former East German states, where economic grievances and dissatisfaction with mainstream parties have strengthened its support. Recent pre-poll survey has predicted that the AfD could secure a record 20 per cent of the vote in the upcoming elections, positioning it as the second-largest party in the Bundestag. Nonetheless, the conservative CDU/CSU is predicted to retain a clear lead on 29 per cent of the votes.
With this projected pre-poll result, German politics appears to be heading in an unprecedented direction. If the AfD's strong polling numbers hold, the party could become a key player in government formation after the upcoming elections, challenging the traditional political alliances.
Sensing this shift, CDU/CSU's chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, has hinted at potential collaboration with the AfD-a stance that marks a significant departure from his party's long-standing position. In addition, Merz has proposed stringent asylum reforms aimed at curbing illegal immigration, including prioritising German law over EU regulations and implementing indefinite border controls.
However, these proposals have sparked controversy and drawn sharp criticism from key political figures, including Chancellor Scholz. Moreover, former Chancellor Angela Merkel has also condemned Merz's insinuation to join hands with far-right forces, highlighting deepening divisions within the CDU/CSU.
Amid mounting backlash, Merz recently attempted a damage control measure by reaffirming that the CDU/CSU would not cooperate with the AfD at any level of government. He further emphasised that such collaboration would compromise the party's integrity and core democratic values. However, Merz's rapid shift in stance within a few days has fueled serious doubts about his personal integrity and political consistency. This might severely affect the overall performance of the CDU/CSU in the upcoming election.
The pre-election political debates clearly reflect that the German migration policy is going to be the most contentious issues in the lead-up to the upcoming elections. In addition, the key political parties are divided on the issues of economic stability, social equality, environmental sustainability and national security. The outcome of the upcoming elections will largely depend on how the voters perceive these issues and how political parties would navigate these challenges in the run-up to the vote.
Irrespective to the outcome of the election, the new government is expected to implement asylum reform plans that could have significant implications for asylum seekers, particularly in terms of labor migration, student visas and asylum applications. With increasing terrorism and callous activities, mainly with the involvement of illegal migrants, asylum rules are definitely going to be tightened whoever forms the government.
The results of Germany's elections may seem distant from the concerns of a country like Nepal, but in our interconnected world, global political developments can have far-reaching impacts that extend beyond national borders. Tighter migration policies in Germany could indirectly affect Nepal, particularly concerning the integrity of its diaspora communities. Germany is home to a significant number of Nepali citizens, and the rise of right-wing extremism could influence the attitudes and behaviours of Nepali expatriates.
On a positive note, stricter German migration policies could help curb the ongoing human trafficking and exploitation of Nepali workers by illegal agents. The reformed policies will push potential migrants to pursue legal channels-such as work and student visas-rather than resorting to asylum loopholes and falling prey to exploitative agents.
While Germany must review and reform its migration policies aligning with prevalent humanitarian norms, it is crucial that any policy changes are not driven by extremism or xenophobia. Such approaches would undermine the well-being and integration of expatriates, including those from Nepal. Ultimately, the results of Germany's federal elections will determine the future direction of its policies and its influence in the global arena. The wait is on till February 23.
Dr Joshi is a senior scientist and independent opinion maker based in Germany
pushpa.joshi@gmail.com